TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Trump out as President before 2027?
Trump out as President before 2027?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will cease to be President of the United States at any point before the end of 2026. Aggregated across Limitless, Polymarket, and Predict, the consensus probability stands at 9.6% for Trump leaving office before 2027, with 9.5% assigned to the alternative outcome. Resolution will be determined by consensus of credible reporting. Watch for any official announcements or developments regarding presidential succession or removal before the December 31, 2026 deadline.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Consensus of credible reportingCore resolution logic:
- Resolves 'Yes' if Trump resigns or is permanently removed as President before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
- Announcement of resignation or removal before market end date triggers immediate 'Yes' resolution regardless of when the removal takes effect
- Only permanent removal qualifies; temporary removals do not count
- Temporary 25th Amendment Section 3 invocation does not qualify
- Unsustained 25th Amendment Section 4 invocation (not upheld by both Houses with two-thirds vote) does not qualify
- Impeachment without removal does not qualify
- Sustained 25th Amendment Section 4 invocation (upheld by both Houses with two-thirds vote) qualifies as permanent removal
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Announcement vs. Effective Date: An announcement of resignation or removal before the market end date resolves the market to 'Yes' immediately, even if the actual removal takes effect after the deadline or in 2027
- Temporary 25th Amendment Section 3: Temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 (Vice President assumes powers temporarily) does not qualify for 'Yes' resolution
- Failed 25th Amendment Section 4: A Section 4 invocation that is not sustained by both Houses of Congress (failing to achieve two-thirds majority in either chamber) does not qualify for 'Yes' resolution
- Impeachment Without Conviction: Impeachment by the House without removal by the Senate does not qualify for 'Yes' resolution
- Sustained 25th Amendment Section 4: A Section 4 invocation upheld by both Houses with two-thirds vote constitutes permanent removal and qualifies for 'Yes' resolution
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately upon announcement of resignation or removal before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or upon the actual permanent removal from office if it occurs before that deadline. Market closes at December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Predict
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Limitless
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and polling measure different things: polls capture voter sentiment or stated preferences at a moment in time, while prediction markets reflect traders' real-money bets on actual outcomes. For the Trump out as President before 2027 event, market odds incorporate not only public opinion but also insider information, geopolitical risk, legal developments, and health considerations. Markets typically adjust faster than polling aggregates when new information emerges. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in scenarios that traditional surveys may underweight, offering a complementary lens on the probability of this outcome.
Limitless and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Limitless and Polymarket can arise from variations in user base, liquidity depth, fee structures, and trading incentives on each platform. Limitless typically hosts larger order flow and tighter spreads due to higher volume, while Polymarket may attract specialized traders or operate under different regulatory frameworks. Arbitrage opportunities between the two venues are often limited by withdrawal delays, platform fees, or account verification requirements. These structural differences mean identical events can trade at slightly different odds, creating temporary spreads that reflect market microstructure rather than fundamental disagreement about the outcome.
Key catalysts include major health incidents, criminal convictions or legal jeopardy, impeachment proceedings, constitutional crises, or unexpected resignation announcements. Geopolitical shocks, economic downturns, or severe political instability could also shift market odds by altering perceived removal risk. Media coverage of investigations, court rulings, or congressional actions typically triggers immediate repricing. Additionally, changes in succession clarity, vice-presidential developments, or statements from key political figures may influence trader conviction. Markets will react dynamically to any event perceived as materially affecting the probability that Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027.
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