TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$149,897,520
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,214,596,905
340,805
Markets across
34,373
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,679
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Zohran Mamdani
- Kalshi
Zohran Mamdani - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Entertainment
Will Zohran Mamdani be Time Person of the Year in 2026?
$
Intro
This market tracks whether Sam Altman will be named Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2026. On Kalshi, Sam Altman currently stands at 20.0%, with Zohran Mamdani at 18.0% as the second leading candidate. Time Magazine will announce its Person of the Year selection, with resolution occurring on January 1, 2027, when the magazine's official announcement becomes the definitive settlement source.
Kalshi
TIME's Person of the Year selection resolves to Yes if the specified person is explicitly named as Person of the Year or pictured on a relevant cover while associated with the winning group or concept. When TIME uses non-specific language such as "The Guardians of Truth" or "The Silence Breakers," resolution applies to the most straightforward interpretation (e.g., "Journalists" or "the Me Too movement"). If multiple persons are named as joint winners, all named individuals are encompassed within the payout criterion. However, if TIME designates variations such as "Entertainer of the Year" or "Hero of the Year" rather than "Person of the Year," those designations are not encompassed in the payout criterion. Conceptually related but non-synonymous terms do not qualify; for example, if "ChatGPT" were Person of the Year, strikes for "AI" or "LLMs" would resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from thousands of traders, creating a dynamic consensus that often differs from traditional analyst predictions or media speculation. While analysts may rely on editorial judgment and historical patterns, prediction markets price in live information and trader conviction. The market has assigned a meaningful probability to AI as the leading outcome, suggesting traders view it as a credible contender. Comparing these odds to published expert forecasts reveals where the crowd diverges from conventional wisdom about who TIME will honor.
On Kalshi, TIME's Person of the Year 2026 is priced as a binary contract: Will AI be TIME Person of the Year in 2026? On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect a 36.0% probability, meaning traders are pricing in a relatively modest but non-trivial chance that AI receives the honor. Prices move as new information emerges—major AI breakthroughs, regulatory shifts, or TIME's editorial signals could shift the contract sharply. The market has accumulated volume of $1,094,294, indicating sustained trader interest in this outcome.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027, after TIME Magazine announces its official Person of the Year for 2026. Resolution is determined by TIME's published announcement and the specific outcome criteria tied to the contract. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout once the announcement is confirmed and the market settles. Until that date, odds will fluctuate based on developments, media coverage, and trader sentiment about potential honorees.
Major AI breakthroughs—such as advances in reasoning, multimodal capabilities, or real-world deployment milestones—could strengthen the case for an AI-related honoree and push odds higher. Conversely, regulatory crackdowns, safety incidents, or public backlash could weaken that narrative. Significant geopolitical events, scientific discoveries, or cultural movements could elevate alternative candidates and shift trader focus. Media coverage, industry awards, and TIME's own editorial hints throughout 2026 will also influence market pricing. Traders monitor these signals continuously, repricing the contract as new information arrives.
