TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Description
This event group tracks the critical reception of the film 'The Odyssey' (2026) as measured by the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on whether the film will achieve specific critical thresholds at 10:00 AM ET on the Monday after wide release (July 20, 2026).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents ten overlapping threshold conditions without hierarchy or market separation, while Polymarket uses discrete binary markets with explicit data fallback procedures. The ambiguity in Kalshi's structure creates uncertainty about whether all conditions must be met, any condition triggers resolution, or the market is misconfigured.Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi and Polymarket as separate resolution ecosystems. For Kalshi, assume the lowest threshold (>45) governs unless official clarification states otherwise. For Polymarket, rely on the explicit July 24, 2026 fallback deadline. Cross-reference both platforms' final scores before settlement to identify any data discrepancies.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Ten conditions listed sequentially, each stating 'If The Odyssey has a Tomatometer score of above [45/50/55/60/65/70/75/80/85/90]... then the market resolves to Yes.' No exclusivity, hierarchy, or market separation defined. Unclear whether this is one market with ten overlapping triggers or ten separate markets.Polymarket:
Four discrete binary markets (>=60, >=70, >=80, >=90) with explicit resolution procedure: check Rotten Tomatoes 'All Critics' Tomatometer at 10:00 AM ET on July 20, 2026; if data unavailable, continue checking until July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; resolve No if still unavailable. Each market is independent.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for The Odyssey (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on July 20, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by The Odyssey's Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score on the Monday following its wide release at 10:00 AM ET. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific score threshold, with resolution requiring the score to exceed (not equal) the stated value. For example, a score of exactly 75 would resolve as No for the "Above 75" market but Yes for the "Above 70" market. The Tomatometer percentage must strictly surpass the strike value to trigger a Yes resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like this one often incorporate forward-looking sentiment that traditional critic scores or studio projections may lag. Traders stake real capital on outcomes, creating financial incentives to price information accurately. While analyst forecasts rely on historical patterns and industry expertise, this market reflects live trader conviction updated continuously as new trailers, reviews, or production news emerges. The divergence between the two can signal whether insiders expect this film to outperform or underperform conventional expectations.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity pools, which can produce price variations on the same underlying event. Kalshi and Polymarket may also structure their outcome categories slightly differently—one platform might focus on a specific score threshold while the other prices a broader range. Arbitrage opportunities and timing lags between platforms can also widen spreads, especially if major news breaks between updates.
This market concludes on Jul 20, 2026. Resolution hinges on the official Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score published for the film, which aggregates reviews from accredited critics. Traders should monitor the film's release date and the typical review-aggregation window that follows, as the final score may take days or weeks to stabilize once reviews begin appearing.
Major catalysts include trailer releases, festival screenings, early critic reviews, and production updates that hint at film quality. Box-office performance of similar films, director or cast news, and studio marketing intensity can all shift trader expectations. Additionally, any behind-the-scenes controversies or acclaimed festival debuts would likely trigger sharp repricing. Real-time review aggregation as the release date approaches will be the most direct signal, with each new critic score potentially moving odds.
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