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622,934
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
Time left: 13d:23h:20m
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Tesla and xAI will officially announce a merger or acquisition by June 30, 2026. Across Polymarket and Limitless, the aggregated consensus stands at 2.9% for an official announcement occurring within the timeframe. Resolution will be determined by official statements from Tesla, Inc. or xAI, with credible media consensus serving as secondary validation. Watch for any formal transaction announcements before the June 30, 2026 deadline, as the resolution window closes at 11:59 PM ET on that date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official announcements from Tesla, Inc. or xAI; credible media consensus serves as secondary validation source.Core resolution logic:
- Resolution triggers on official announcement (not deal closure) of a merger or acquisition between Tesla and xAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Announcement may come from either company; direction of acquisition (Tesla acquires xAI or vice versa) is immaterial.
- Acquiring entity must obtain controlling interest, defined as more than 50% equity ownership or equivalent voting and governance control rights.
- Partial sales or minority investments that do not confer controlling interest do not qualify for Yes resolution.
- Announcement timing is the sole determinant; actual transaction closure date is irrelevant to resolution.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Announcement vs. Execution Gap: If announcement occurs by June 30, 2026 but deal closes after that date, market resolves Yes. Conversely, if deal closes by June 30 but announcement occurs after, market resolves No.
- Controlling Interest Threshold: Transactions must result in >50% equity or equivalent control via voting and governance rights. Minority stakes, board seats without control, or strategic partnerships do not qualify.
- Source Hierarchy: Official Tesla or xAI statements are primary; if conflicting, credible consensus reporting (major financial media, SEC filings) may resolve ambiguity.
- Partial Acquisition: If one company acquires a controlling stake in the other through staged or partial transactions, the announcement of the controlling-interest-conferring tranche triggers Yes resolution.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official announcement by either Tesla or xAI of a merger or acquisition conferring controlling interest, on or before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. No announcement by this deadline resolves to No.Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with xAI, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Limitless
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with xAI, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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