TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Odds & Prediction Markets
Will Tamas Sulyok be out as President of Hungary before Aug 1, 2026?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Tamas Sulyok will cease to be President of Hungary before the June 30 deadline. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows a 43.0% probability that Sulyok exits the office by that date, with a 14.0% probability assigned to an earlier July 1 exit. Resolution will be determined by official statements from Sulyok and the Hungarian government, supplemented by credible reporting if needed. Watch for any announcement of resignation or removal before June 30, 2026, which would immediately trigger a Yes resolution regardless of the effective date of the transition.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Timing mismatch and contract structure difference. Polymarket uses a single June 30 deadline with announcement-trigger logic; Kalshi offers three separate staggered-deadline markets without explicit announcement triggers.Hero Tip:
Recognize these as three distinct Kalshi SKUs (Jun 1, Jul 1, Aug 1) versus one Polymarket contract (Jun 30). Polymarket's announcement clause may resolve earlier than Kalshi's event-based logic. Arbitrage risk exists if Sulyok announces resignation between Jun 1 and Jun 30 but effective date is after Jun 30.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Single binary market, June 30, 2026 (ET) deadline. Resolves Yes if Sulyok ceases to be President for any period between market creation and June 30, OR if resignation/removal is announced before June 30 (regardless of effective date). Source: official Hungarian government and Sulyok statements, or credible reporting consensus.Kalshi:
Three separate binary markets with June 1, July 1, and August 1, 2026 deadlines. Each resolves Yes if Sulyok leaves office before its respective deadline. No explicit announcement-trigger clause; resolution appears event-based only.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tamas Sulyok ceases to be the President of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and June 30 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sulyok's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Tamas Sulyok and the Hungarian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if Tamas Sulyok leaves the office of President of Hungary before the specified deadline through any means of cessation, including voluntary resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, recall, or expiration of term without renewal. Death while in office may result in resolution at the last fair price at the Exchange's discretion. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If Sulyok vacates and later re-occupies the role, resolution occurs upon the initial vacation. Should the presidency cease to exist with no plausible successor, the market resolves to No. The event is structured with multiple deadline variants (June 1, July 1, and August 1, 2026), each representing a separate resolution path based on whether departure occurs before that specific date.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket incorporate real-money incentives and continuous price discovery, often diverging from traditional polling. While polls measure stated preferences at a snapshot in time, prediction markets reflect traders' beliefs about actual outcomes and evolve as new information emerges. For the Sulyok event, market odds may differ from any available polling on Hungarian political stability or succession scenarios, as traders factor in insider knowledge, geopolitical developments, and institutional dynamics that surveys may not capture.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket serve different trader bases, regulatory jurisdictions, and liquidity pools, leading to price variations. Kalshi shows 14.0% implied probability while Polymarket reflects 7.0%, a spread of 7.0 percentage points. Differences arise from varying order flow, user demographics, fee structures, and market depth. Additionally, the platforms may interpret event resolution criteria slightly differently, and traders on each venue may have asymmetric information or risk tolerances, causing temporary or sustained divergence in how they price Sulyok's potential exit.
Key catalysts include major political crises, constitutional challenges, or parliamentary actions in Hungary that could trigger presidential resignation or removal. Health emergencies, international diplomatic pressure, or shifts in Hungarian coalition dynamics could accelerate timelines. Announcements from Sulyok himself, statements from Prime Minister Viktor Orbán or other senior officials, and developments in EU relations may influence trader expectations. Electoral or legislative changes, legal proceedings, or unexpected succession scenarios would also move odds significantly as markets reassess the probability of his departure by June 30, 2026.
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