TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
"Supergirl" Rotten Tomatoes score? Odds & Prediction Markets
Time left: 05d:10h:29m
Supergirl Rotten Tomatoes score?
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Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Supergirl (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on June 29, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by July 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents 14 logically redundant and overlapping Yes-resolution conditions that all trigger on a single Tomatometer score, making it impossible to determine which market(s) settle and how. Polymarket presents 4 clean, mutually independent binary markets with explicit threshold gates. The two platforms have fundamentally incompatible market structures.Hero Tip:
Polymarket's 4 binary markets (50+, 60+, 70+, 80+) are the only resolvable framework. Kalshi's 14-condition list is likely a configuration error. Before trading Kalshi, obtain explicit clarification on whether all 14 are live markets or if only one canonical market exists. If all 14 are live, they will all resolve identically based on the final score, making them perfect hedges rather than independent bets.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
14 separate conditions, all with Yes resolution, spanning thresholds >30, >35, >40, >45, >50, >55, >60, >65, >70, >75, >80, >85, >90, >95. A single final score (e.g., 72) satisfies 11 of these conditions simultaneously. No mechanism provided to disambiguate which market applies or how settlement occurs across overlapping conditions.Polymarket:
4 independent binary markets: (1) Will score >= 50? (2) Will score >= 60? (3) Will score >= 70? (4) Will score >= 80? Each market resolves Yes or No independently. A score of 72 resolves Yes on markets 1-3 and No on market 4. Clear, non-overlapping logic.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Supergirl (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on June 29, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by July 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Kalshi
The Supergirl Tomatometer score will be assessed on Monday, June 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, the Monday following the film's wide release. Each outcome resolves to Yes only if the Tomatometer score exceeds the specified threshold value (for example, a score of 75 would resolve "Above 75" as No, not Yes). The score must be strictly above the strike value for affirmative resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from thousands of traders betting on Supergirl's critical reception. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on subjective expert opinion, markets aggregate distributed information and financial incentives. Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket continuously update prices based on production news, trailer reception, and industry sentiment. This dynamic pricing often captures emerging signals faster than static analyst ratings, though both approaches offer complementary perspectives on the film's likely Rotten Tomatoes performance by Jun 29, 2026.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket may price the same event differently due to distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and contract specifications. Kalshi frames the question broadly around the score itself, while Polymarket focuses on a 70-point threshold, attracting different trader demographics. Liquidity imbalances, regional access restrictions, and fee structures also influence pricing. A spread of 7.5 percentage points between platforms creates arbitrage opportunities and reflects genuine market segmentation rather than mispricing.
Key catalysts include trailer releases, behind-the-scenes production updates, and casting announcements that shift market sentiment. Early festival screenings or critic previews often trigger sharp price moves as real data replaces speculation. Marketing campaigns, director interviews, and comparisons to prior DC films influence trader expectations. As the release date approaches, review embargo lifts and early critic reactions become the dominant price drivers. Social media buzz, fan reception, and franchise momentum also signal potential critical reception, moving odds significantly in the final weeks before Jun 29, 2026.
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