TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$101,900,907

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,178,729,067

335,697

Markets across

33,528

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,579

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA

Science and Technology

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

kalshi

polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

Total volume:

$895,526

Volume 24h:

$150,383

14%

Liquidity:

$226,448

74%

Open interest:

$41,718

33%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

- Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 15, 2026

Time left: 18d:08h:04m

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

Amount

$

Trade on

polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 1.4¢ buys you 7,143 shares | Odds: 1% Total Payout: $7,143 | Net Profit: $7,043 Multiplier: 71.43x | ROI: 7,043% APY not meaningful 18 days to resolution

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

1%

2%

Yes 1.4¢

No 98.7¢

0.1¢

$226,448

$828,172

18%

126%

N/A

2w 4d 8h

active

kalshi

Above 20

100%

14%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$10,650

N/A

N/A

$5,763

0d 0h 0m

Yes

kalshi

Above 10

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$5,955

N/A

N/A

$4,487

0d 0h 0m

Yes

kalshi

Above 30

0%

14%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$22,115

N/A

N/A

$9,969

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 40

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$15,751

N/A

N/A

$11,840

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 50

0%

3%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$5,770

N/A

N/A

$4,566

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 80

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$2,641

N/A

N/A

$1,623

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 60

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$2,353

N/A

N/A

$1,805

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 70

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$1,190

N/A

N/A

$798

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 150

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$301

N/A

N/A

$300

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 100

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$256

N/A

N/A

$226

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 90

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$224

N/A

N/A

$193

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 125

0%

1%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$147

N/A

N/A

$147

0d 0h 0m

No

Total markets: 13

Description

This event group concerns whether maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels by September 15, 2026. Normal traffic is defined by specific thresholds of transit calls as reported by IMF PortWatch.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Threshold and timeframe mismatch between platformsHero tip: Focus on Polymarket’s broader timeframe and moving average requirement, as it is more likely to capture normal traffic conditions leading up to the September 15 deadline.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Requires a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 15, 2026.
Kalshi: Requires the number of transit calls to be above specific thresholds (10 to 150) from Aug 10, 2026 to Aug 16, 2026.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 15, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the total number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch, exceeds a specified threshold between August 10, 2026, and August 16, 2026. The total is calculated by summing daily counts over the week. Resolution occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period's end, once complete data is available.