TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$84,940,147

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,022,755

334,261

Markets across

33,310

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,574

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
polymarket
kalshi

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

Total volume:
$23,926,521
Volume 24h:
$203,506
6%
Liquidity:
$396,597
84%
Open interest:
$95,967
11%

August 31

 - Polymarket

August 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 1, 2026

Time left: 04d:13h:34m

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

0%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 0.4¢ buys you 25,000 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $25,000 | Net Profit: $24,900 Multiplier: 250.00x | ROI: 24,900% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

August 31

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$396,597
$16,559,566
0.94%
8%
N/A
4d 13h 34m
active
kalshi

Above 30

View
100%
62%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$16,870
N/A
N/A
$9,014
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 25

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,974
N/A
N/A
$5,483
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 20

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,968
N/A
N/A
$3,767
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 15

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,966
N/A
N/A
$3,872
0d 0h 0m
Yes
polymarket

August 15

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,192,395
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 80

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,043
N/A
N/A
$13,815
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 50

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,175
N/A
N/A
$10,644
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 35

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,920
N/A
N/A
$7,142
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 40

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,867
N/A
N/A
$6,404
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 60

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,840
N/A
N/A
$6,144
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 75

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,094
N/A
N/A
$7,418
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 55

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,804
N/A
N/A
$7,416
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 45

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,640
N/A
N/A
$6,887
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 70

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,753
N/A
N/A
$4,507
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 65

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,647
N/A
N/A
$3,454
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 16

Description

This group of markets tracks whether traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal levels by specified dates in 2026, using IMF Portwatch data as the definitive source.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Threshold Mismatch / Timeframe MismatchHero tip: Polymarket markets are far more sensitive to gradual improvements, while Kalshi markets require a sudden spike within a narrow 1-week window. Trade accordingly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Requires a 7-day moving average of transit calls ≥ 60 for ANY date between market creation and the specified deadline (Aug 15 or Aug 31, 2026). Revisions within the timeframe are considered.
  • Kalshi: Requires a single-day transit call count ≥ threshold (15-80) for the week of Aug 3-9, 2026 ONLY. No moving average, and only applies to that specific week.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Kalshi

This event evaluates whether the total number of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as officially reported by the IMF PortWatch, exceeds specified thresholds during the period from August 3, 2026, to August 9, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different numerical threshold (e.g., above 15, above 20, etc.), and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the aggregated daily count for the entire week surpasses its respective threshold. All markets share the same calculation methodology: daily transit counts are summed across the seven-day period, and the final resolution will occur no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the period, ensuring complete and verified data availability before any outcome is determined.