TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$91,248,924

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,520,955

334,440

Markets across

33,346

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,559

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Science and Technology
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on August 10?
kalshi
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on August 10?

Total volume:
$78,530
Volume 24h:
$7,141
3,322%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$29,086
5%

Bloom Energy

 - Kalshi

Bloom Energy - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Will Bloom Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?

49%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 58¢ buys you 172 shares | Odds: 49% Total Payout: $172 | Net Profit: $72 Multiplier: 1.72x | ROI: 72% APY not meaningful 34 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Bloom Energy

Trade
49%
Yes 58¢No 55¢
13¢
N/A
$12,176
0.9%
15%
$6,277
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals

Trade
30%
Yes 30¢No 87¢
17¢
N/A
$2,927
3%
3%
$1,978
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Pure Storage

Trade
16%
Yes 13¢No 91¢
4¢
N/A
$2,421
0%
0%
$693
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Curtiss-Wright Corporation

Trade
14%
Yes 25¢No 96¢
21¢
N/A
$561
0%
0%
$510
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

SoFi

Trade
11%
Yes 18¢No 87¢
5¢
N/A
$13,543
2%
5%
$5,474
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Affirm Holdings

Trade
8%
Yes 25¢No 91¢
16¢
N/A
$212
0%
0%
$130
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Snowflake

Trade
6%
Yes 10¢No 96¢
6¢
N/A
$296
0%
27%
$245
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

SpaceX

Trade
4%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$3,602
0%
4%
$1,386
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Casey's General Stores

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$5,621
0%
0%
$5,550
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Cloudflare

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$3,007
0%
0%
$1,099
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

BWX Technologies

Trade
2%
Yes 21¢No 100¢
21¢
N/A
$252
0%
14%
$102
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Venture Global

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$219
0%
1,415%
$212
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Roblox

Trade
2%
Yes 10¢No 100¢
10¢
N/A
$187
0%
19%
$111
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Talen Energy

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$72
0%
0%
$51
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Duolingo

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$72
0%
0%
$50
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Guidewire Software

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$72
0%
0%
$50
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Circle Internet Group

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$71
0%
0%
$50
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Cerebras

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,310
0%
0%
$2,000
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Strategy (MicroStrategy)

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$1,335
0%
0%
$370
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

CoreWeave

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$843
0%
0%
$482
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Toast

Trade
1%
Yes 6¢No 99¢
5¢
N/A
$131
0%
0%
$79
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

$770

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,988
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Reddit

View
100%
75%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,174
N/A
N/A
$2,187
1mo 4d
Yes
polymarket

$745

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,292
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
polymarket

$765

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,694
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 33

Description

This event group combines two distinct types of markets: one set resolves based on specific corporate announcements regarding additions to the S&P 500 index during a defined period, while the other set resolves based on whether the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closes above specified price thresholds on August 10, 2026. The markets are linked by sharing the same resolution date window but have fundamentally different triggering conditions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamentally different resolution criteria types (Corporate announcement vs Price threshold)Hero tip: Treat these as separate bet categories: Kalshi markets require monitoring S&P 500 index committee announcements, while Polymarket markets require tracking SPY price action on August 10, 2026. No overlap in resolution mechanics.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if any of 22 specified companies (SpaceX, Affirm, SoFi, etc.) are officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on SPY closing price vs specified thresholds ($795, $790, etc.) on August 10, 2026 trading session, using Pyth data with specific handling for splits and trading days
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on August 10?

Kalshi

A company resolves to Yes if it is announced to be added to or is officially added to the S&P 500 between July 1, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Resolution occurs upon whichever happens first: the index administrator's official announcement of the membership change or the change taking effect. The effective date need not fall within the specified time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur during Q3 2026. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.