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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10?
kalshi
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10?

Total volume:
$180,152
Volume 24h:
$151,908
4,880%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$17,616
1%

4.43% or above

 - Kalshi

4.43% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 04d:00h:13m

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.42% on Aug 31, 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 4 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.43% or above

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$702
0%
4%
$702
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.45% or above

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$663
0%
4%
$663
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.49% or above

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$656
0%
4%
$656
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.47% or above

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$625
0%
4%
$625
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.51% or above

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$625
0%
4%
$625
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.41% or above

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$312
0%
9%
$212
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.55% or above

Trade
94%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$1,133
0%
284%
$860
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.53% or above

Trade
87%
Yes 100¢No 2¢
2¢
N/A
$154
0%
0%
$154
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.61% or above

Trade
70%
Yes 95¢No 20¢
15¢
N/A
$2,201
0%
16%
$1,043
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.59% or above

Trade
68%
Yes 99¢No 13¢
12¢
N/A
$100
0%
0%
$100
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.63% or above

Trade
62%
Yes 83¢No 30¢
13¢
N/A
$768
0%
64%
$521
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.65% or above

Trade
55%
Yes 64¢No 42¢
6¢
N/A
$766
0%
0%
$585
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.67% or above

Trade
49%
3%
Yes 59¢No 53¢
12¢
N/A
$1,507
1%
9%
$838
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.71% or above

Trade
43%
Yes 37¢No 87¢
24¢
N/A
$620
0%
0%
$420
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.69% or above

Trade
36%
14%
Yes 49¢No 73¢
22¢
N/A
$791
42%
43%
$651
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.77% or above

Trade
33%
Yes 9¢No 98¢
7¢
N/A
$609
0%
9%
$472
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.79% or above

Trade
25%
Yes 8¢No 100¢
8¢
N/A
$917
0%
0%
$712
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.73% or above

Trade
10%
40%
Yes 26¢No 94¢
20¢
N/A
$1,165
9%
27%
$727
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.83% or above

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$1,823
0%
0%
$1,006
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.89% or above

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,275
0%
0%
$1,045
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.75% or above

Trade
2%
Yes 9¢No 98¢
7¢
N/A
$1,574
0%
80%
$1,219
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.81% or above

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$1,196
0%
11%
$769
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.85% or above

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,968
0%
0%
$1,769
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.87% or above

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,441
0%
7%
$1,242
4d 13m
active
kalshi

4.57% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 13m
active
Total markets: 25 of 26

Description

This event group determines whether the S&P 500 Index (SPX) will be up or down on August 10, 2026, compared to the most recent prior trading day. The resolution depends on the official closing prices published by S&P 500 Index.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The two platforms are resolving based on entirely different financial metrics: Kalshi uses 10Y U.S. Treasury yields, while Polymarket uses S&P 500 Index closing prices.Hero tip: Do not treat these markets as connected. They resolve to entirely different outcomes based on different data sources and timelines. Trade them separately.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above any of the specified thresholds on Aug 31, 2026. Key Quote: "If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.80% on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
  • Polymarket: Resolves to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on Monday, August 10, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. Key Quote: "This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, August 10, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, August 10, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, August 10, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Kalshi

These markets collectively assess whether the par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury exceeds progressively higher thresholds on August 31, 2026. Each individual market has a distinct threshold, ranging from 4.60% to 4.88%, with a 'Yes' outcome if the yield closes above the specified level on that date. All markets share a uniform expiration protocol: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official data release for August 31, 2026, or one week after August 31, 2026. This structure allows for granular tracking of yield movements, providing a detailed perspective on potential interest rate changes and broader economic indicators influencing Treasury securities.