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SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?
kalshi
polymarket

SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?

Total volume:
$28,903
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$9,814
0.1%
Open interest:
$15,400
0%

SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?

 - Polymarket

SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?

3%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 4.9¢ buys you 2,041 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $2,041 | Net Profit: $1,941 Multiplier: 20.41x | ROI: 1,941% APY not meaningful 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?

Trade
3%
Yes 4.9¢No 98.2¢
3.1¢
$9,814
$1,762
0%
1%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Yes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,142
N/A
N/A
$15,400
4mo 1w 6d
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks whether the U.S. Supreme Court grants a petition for rehearing in Trump v. Barbara, a case concerning Trump's Executive Order on birthright citizenship that was struck down on June 30, 2026. Resolution depends on an official grant of rehearing by the executive branch, not merely an order allowing briefing or opinion amendments.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms require an affirmative Supreme Court grant of a rehearing petition in Trump v. Barbara by the specified deadline; procedural orders, opinion amendments, and petition denials all resolve to No.Primary resolution logic: Official Supreme Court of the United States announcement or order granting rehearing; credible consensus reporting may serve as secondary confirmation.

Core resolution logic:

  • Supreme Court must issue an affirmative order GRANTING a petition for rehearing in Trump v. Barbara filed by the executive branch
  • Grant must occur on or before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
  • An order permitting briefing on whether to rehear does NOT constitute a grant and resolves to No
  • An amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing resolves to No
  • A denial of the rehearing petition resolves to No
  • Failure to file a petition by applicable Supreme Court deadlines resolves to No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Briefing Order vs Grant: An order allowing the parties to brief whether the Court should rehear the case is explicitly insufficient; only a formal grant of rehearing resolves to Yes
  • Opinion Amendment: Corrections or amendments to the Court's opinion that do not constitute a formal grant of rehearing do not trigger Yes resolution
  • Petition Denial: An explicit denial of a rehearing petition resolves to No
  • No Petition Filed: If no petition for rehearing is filed by the applicable Supreme Court deadline, the market resolves to No
Timing: Resolution occurs upon official Supreme Court issuance of a grant of rehearing, or upon the December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET deadline, whichever comes first. If no grant is issued by that deadline, resolution is No.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing. If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition for rehearing in Trump v. Barbara after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The Trump birthright citizenship SCOTUS rehearing market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on whether the Supreme Court will grant a petition for rehearing in the birthright citizenship case before the year ends. Traders on both venues are pricing the likelihood of this specific judicial outcome. The dashboard consolidates volume and odds across these platforms, giving you a real-time cross-venue view of market consensus. This represents one of the most closely watched Supreme Court developments in recent prediction market history, with active trading reflecting significant uncertainty about the Court's next procedural move.

Prediction markets differ fundamentally from polling. Rather than surveying public opinion, traders here are wagering real money on a specific legal outcome—whether SCOTUS will grant rehearing. Market prices reflect the aggregated judgment of informed participants with financial skin in the game, not representative samples of the general population. Polling on judicial decisions is rare and often unreliable; prediction markets instead harness expert knowledge, legal analysis, and breaking news to price the probability. This makes odds on this market a distinct signal, complementary to but separate from any polling data on public sentiment around birthright citizenship policy.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution hinges on whether the Supreme Court officially grants a petition for rehearing in the Trump v. Barbara case before January 1, 2027. The outcome will be determined by checking authoritative Court records and major legal news sources. If SCOTUS issues a grant of rehearing within the deadline, the affirmative outcome wins; otherwise, the negative resolves. Traders should monitor official Supreme Court dockets and reputable legal reporting for updates as the deadline approaches.

Major catalysts include new filings or briefs from Trump's legal team, statements from other parties in the case, or signals from the Court about its docket priorities. Oral arguments, if scheduled, would likely shift odds significantly. Political developments—such as changes in administration or shifts in judicial philosophy—could influence trader expectations. Media coverage of similar cases or Supreme Court procedural announcements may also trigger repricing. Finally, any public commentary from sitting justices or legal experts reassessing the rehearing odds would be closely watched. Traders should monitor legal news outlets, the Supreme Court's official website, and major political developments for real-time market-moving information.