TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Economics
Reserve Bank of India decision in December
polymarket
kalshi

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

Total volume:
$35,539
Volume 24h:
$110N/A
Liquidity:
$11,249
27%
Open interest:
$6,183
0.24%

25 bps increase

 - Polymarket

25 bps increase - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 4, 2026

Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

77%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 78¢ buys you 128 shares | Odds: 77% Total Payout: $128 | Net Profit: $28 Multiplier: 1.28x | ROI: 28% High Projected APY: 987% 37 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
77%
Yes 78¢No 24¢
2¢
$3,350
$4,546
0.71%
17%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
kalshi

Hike 1-25bps

71%
Yes 77¢No 24¢
1¢
N/A
$77
0%
24%
$58
1mo 1w
active
polymarket

No Change

14%
1%
Yes 15¢No 87¢
2¢
$2,671
$11,128
0.24%
78%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
kalshi

Maintain current rate

14%
Yes 20¢No 84¢
4¢
N/A
$1,637
0.92%
256%
$1,603
1mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
14%
Yes 17.5¢No 85.5¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 4¢
polymarket

50+ bps increase

8%
Yes 9¢No 94¢
3¢
$1,743
$1,093
1%
17%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
kalshi

Hike more than 25bps

4%
Yes 9¢No 98¢
7¢
N/A
$53
0%
0%
$53
1mo 1w
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

2%
Yes 2.5¢No 97.9¢
0.4¢
$1,657
$1,043
1%
13%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
kalshi

Cut 1-25bps

2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$11,846
0%
0%
$2,405
1mo 1w
active
kalshi

Cut more than 25bps

2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$3,733
0%
0%
$2,064
1mo 1w
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.8¢
0.5¢
$1,827
$382
3%
49%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
Total markets: 10

Description

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, with the decision to be announced on December 4, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, with the decision to be announced on December 4, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Kalshi

The resolution of these markets depends on the official policy rate decision announced by the Reserve Bank of India following its December Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Only changes to the primary policy rate are considered; multiple policy rates do not affect the outcome. If the scheduled meeting is cancelled or delayed beyond the expiration date, all "Maintain current rate" markets resolve to Yes, while all other markets resolve to No. Emergency rate changes occurring outside of the scheduled meeting timeframe do not impact contract resolutions tied to this specific meeting.