TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Wildwood
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2027
Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars?
$
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Description
This prediction market asks participants to forecast which film will win the Best Animated Feature Film award at the 99th Academy Awards in 2027. The markets cover a selection of potential nominees and include an 'Other' option.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms rely on the official Academy Awards announcement to determine the winner, with a tiebreaker rule based on alphabetical order.Primary resolution logic: Official Academy Awards website (oscars.org) and the live broadcast of the award ceremonyCore resolution logic:
- The market resolves to 'Yes' for the film that wins the Best Animated Feature Film award at the 99th Academy Awards.
- In the event of a tie, the film listed first alphabetically will be considered the winner.
- If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Film Not Nominated: If a film is not nominated for the Best Animated Feature Film award, the corresponding market on Polymarket will immediately resolve to 'No'. Kalshi does not explicitly state this, but the market will effectively resolve to 'No' as the film cannot win.
- Award Ceremony Delay: If the Academy Awards ceremony is significantly delayed, resolution will still occur based on the official announcement, even if it happens after the initial expected date, as long as it's before June 30, 2027.
Polymarket
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The event determines whether any of the listed animated films, or a tie between them, wins the Best Animated Feature Film award at the 99th Academy Awards scheduled for March 2027. Each market specifies a different film as the potential winner, with the resolution depending solely on which film, if any from the list, is announced as the award recipient. Should a film not listed in any market win, or if the award is not given at all, all markets resolve to No. The Academy Awards have not endorsed these markets, and any references to the Oscars are used descriptively without implying affiliation or endorsement. The resolution hinges exclusively on the official announcement of the award winner during the ceremony.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on subjective evaluations and industry expertise, this market aggregates the opinions of a diverse group of traders who have 'skin in the game'. This incentivizes more accurate predictions, as participants profit from correctly anticipating the outcome. Often, the market demonstrates greater accuracy, especially closer to the event date, as it incorporates a wider range of information and adapts quickly to new developments. However, initial analyst opinions can still influence early trading in this market, creating interesting points of comparison.
Prices for this market can vary between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading fees, and liquidity levels, all of which can influence price discovery. Furthermore, different platforms may attract traders with varying levels of expertise or access to information. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? at 74.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars? at 75.0%. These discrepancies represent differing assessments of the probabilities, reflecting the unique dynamics of each platform’s trading environment.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Best Animated Feature Film category at the Academy Awards will determine the outcome. The official announcement from the Academy Awards ceremony serves as the basis for verification. Traders will be able to see the final results reflected in the market dashboard shortly after the ceremony concludes, ensuring a transparent and efficient resolution process. The volume traded in this market currently stands at $119,629.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major award nominations from guilds like the Producers Guild of America or the Golden Globes often serve as strong indicators. Positive critical reception and box office success for potential nominees can also shift probabilities. Unexpected announcements regarding production delays or creative changes could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any significant media coverage or public buzz surrounding a particular film could attract more traders and move the market. The release of trailers and promotional materials can also create volatility as traders react to new information about the contenders.