TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
$101,900,907
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1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,178,729,067
335,697
Markets across
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MATCHED EVENTS:
4,579
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
The Odyssey
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2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 21, 2027
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?
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Intro
This market tracks whether "Wild Horse Nine" will receive a Best Picture nomination at the 99th Academy Awards. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus probability stands at 94.0% that the film will be nominated. Resolution will be determined by the official AMPAS nomination announcement scheduled for January 21, 2027, via the oscars.org website and live broadcast, with credible news consensus serving as secondary confirmation. Watch for the Academy's official announcement on January 21, 2027, when the complete list of Best Picture nominees will be revealed.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket use identical binary logic: nomination = YES, no nomination = NO, with the same official AMPAS source and January 21, 2027 announcement date as the resolution trigger.Primary resolution logic: Official Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) nomination announcement on January 21, 2027, via oscars.org website and live broadcast; credible news consensus may serve as secondary confirmation.Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES if the specified film receives an official Best Picture nomination when AMPAS announces the 99th Academy Awards nominees on January 21, 2027.
- Market resolves NO if the specified film does not appear on the official Best Picture nominees list announced on January 21, 2027.
- Market resolves NO if, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Resolution is binary and deterministic: each film either is or is not on the official Best Picture nominees list.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Nomination Announcement Delay: If AMPAS delays the nomination announcement beyond January 21, 2027, markets remain open until the announcement occurs or until March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no announcement by the deadline, all markets resolve NO.
- Film Title Variations: If a film is nominated under a slightly different title or subtitle (e.g., '1949 / Fatherland' vs 'Fatherland'), the market resolves YES if the film is officially nominated regardless of exact title formatting, provided the film is clearly identifiable as the same work.
- Multiple Nominations Per Film: A film may receive multiple nominations (e.g., Best Picture, Best Director, etc.). The market only cares about Best Picture nomination status; other nominations are irrelevant.
- Ceremony Cancellation: If the 99th Academy Awards ceremony is cancelled or postponed indefinitely before March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no nominations are announced, all markets resolve NO.
Polymarket
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the corresponding film receives a Best Picture nomination at the 99th Academy Awards. Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. Resolution is based solely on official Academy announcement of nominees, with no consideration of wins or other categories.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from thousands of traders betting on actual outcomes, whereas traditional analyst forecasts rely on expert opinion and historical patterns. Markets often incorporate breaking news, box office performance, and festival buzz faster than published analyses. For Oscars 2026 Best Picture nominations, comparing market-implied probabilities on Polymarket and Kalshi against major film critics' predictions and industry publications can reveal where professional opinion diverges from crowd wisdom, signaling potential mispricings or emerging consensus shifts.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Polymarket and Kalshi arise from distinct user bases, liquidity pools, fee structures, and market-making dynamics on each platform. Polymarket currently shows 96.6% for its top outcome, while Kalshi reflects 99.0%, a spread of 2.4 percentage points. Variations also stem from different contract designs, settlement timelines, and regional trader participation. Arbitrage opportunities may exist, but transaction costs and platform friction typically prevent full convergence before the market resolves.
The market resolves on Jan 21, 2027, following the official announcement of Best Picture nominations at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony. Resolution is determined by the Academy's official nominee list as published by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Each contract tied to a specific film settles based on whether that film receives a nomination. Traders holding positions in nominated films win; those holding non-nominees lose. The resolution is objective and verifiable through official Academy records.
Major catalysts include box office performance and word-of-mouth momentum, major film festival wins and critical acclaim at Venice, Berlin, or Sundance, industry award nominations from BAFTA, Golden Globes, and SAG Awards, filmmaker interviews and campaign announcements, and shifts in streaming release dates or theatrical windows. Additionally, unexpected controversies, casting changes, or production delays can reshape nomination odds. Trade publications like Variety and The Hollywood Reporter frequently update Oscar predictions, and each update often triggers repricing across Polymarket and Kalshi.