TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
$
Description
This event group tracks whether specific films will receive Best Picture nominations at the 99th Academy Awards (2027 ceremony, nominations announced January 21, 2027). Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer binary yes/no markets on individual film nominations, with resolution tied to official AMPAS announcement.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket use identical binary logic: nomination occurs = YES, no nomination = NO, with the same official AMPAS source and January 21, 2027 announcement date as the resolution trigger.Primary resolution logic: Official Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) announcement and oscars.org; live broadcast of nomination announcement on January 21, 2027; consensus of credible reporting if needed.Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES if the named film receives an official Best Picture nomination from AMPAS for the 99th Academy Awards.
- Market resolves NO if the named film does not appear on the official Best Picture nominees list when announced on January 21, 2027.
- Market resolves NO if no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (force resolution to prevent indefinite ambiguity).
- Each film has its own independent binary market; nomination of one film does not affect resolution of another.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Ceremony Postponement or Cancellation: If the 99th Academy Awards ceremony is postponed or cancelled entirely, markets resolve NO as of the original deadline (March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) unless nominations were already officially announced.
- Tie or Co-Nomination: If a film receives a nomination under any official AMPAS designation (including co-nominations or alternative titles), the market resolves YES.
- Title Variations: Markets are tied to the exact film title listed. If a film is nominated under a slightly different title (e.g., subtitle changes), resolution depends on whether AMPAS officially recognizes it as the same film; credible reporting consensus applies.
- Nomination Retraction: If AMPAS officially retracts a nomination after announcement but before March 14, 2027, the market resolves NO retroactively.
Polymarket
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
A film receives a Yes resolution if it is nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. The nomination announcement is expected in January 2027. Each film listed represents a separate market outcome, and any film that receives an official Best Picture nomination will resolve to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts frequently base their predictions on critical reception, box office success, and industry buzz. However, this market incorporates the ‘wisdom of the crowd,’ reflecting the collective judgment of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. This can lead to odds that are more responsive to changing sentiment and potentially more accurate, especially as the nomination period approaches. While discrepancies can exist, the market often serves as a valuable complement to conventional analysis.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity levels, which can influence price discovery. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? at 97.5%, while Kalshi leans toward 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? at 97.0%. Differences in trading fees, margin requirements, and the availability of limit orders can also contribute to price discrepancies. These variations provide opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from price differences across platforms.
This market resolves around Mar 15, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official nominations for the Best Picture category at the 99th Academy Awards are announced and verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will reflect which films ultimately receive nominations, and the outcome will be determined by the official list released by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Trading will cease once the nominations are public, and the market will settle based on the confirmed nominees.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Critical reviews following film festival screenings, major award wins at events like the Golden Globes or Critics Choice Awards, and shifts in box office performance are all potential catalysts. Unexpected directorial changes or controversies surrounding a film could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any significant media coverage or public discussion about potential nominees could drive volume and price movements in this market. The release of trailers and promotional materials may also sway trader sentiment.