TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Julianne Moore
- Kalshi
Julianne Moore - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 21, 2027
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?
$
Description
This event tracks whether any of a specific group of actresses receives a nomination for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony. The market resolves positively if at least one of these nominated actresses is selected as a finalist in this category.
Kalshi
An actress receives a Yes resolution if she is nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards. The nomination announcement is expected in January 2027. Each actress listed represents a separate market outcome, and any actress who receives an official Best Actress nomination will resolve to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are focusing on critical acclaim and industry buzz, this market incorporates the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Often, this leads to a different ranking of potential winners than those found in mainstream media. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially in competitive races where public opinion is divided. Examining these differences can be valuable for a more comprehensive understanding of the race.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing each nominee at prices that reflect their perceived probability of winning. As more people buy contracts for a particular nominee, the price increases, indicating a higher probability. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The prices are constantly fluctuating based on supply and demand, creating a dynamic and responsive market. This allows for a real-time assessment of the perceived chances of each actress winning the award.
This market resolves around Jan 21, 2027, following the announcement of the winner at the Academy Awards ceremony. The outcome will be determined by the official results announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, verified against credible public reporting. The contract corresponding to the winning actress will pay out, while all other contracts will expire worthless. Traders should monitor the official announcement to confirm the resolution of this market and the payout of winning contracts.
Several key events could significantly impact this market. Major awards show wins, such as the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and the Screen Actors Guild Awards, often serve as important indicators of momentum. Positive or negative critical reviews, particularly from influential publications, can also shift sentiment. Unexpected campaign activity or endorsements could also move the market. Finally, any significant news or controversies surrounding the nominees could influence trading activity and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.
