TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars?
$
Intro
This market tracks whether *The Odyssey* will win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. Currently, Kalshi gives *The Odyssey* a 51.0% probability of winning. *Dune: Part Three* is currently at 12.0% on the platform. Kalshi will resolve this market based on whether *Dune: Part Three* has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. Keep an eye on the nominations announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, expected around January 2027, as they will significantly shape the market’s trajectory.
Kalshi
If The Odyssey has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Digger has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Wild Horse Nine has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Project Hail Mary has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dune: Part Three has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Disclosure Day has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Fjord has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Social Reckoning has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Entertainment System Is Down has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Artificial has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Narnia: The Magician's Nephew has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Werwulf has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Behemoth has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Josephine has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sense and Sensibility has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If I Love Boosters has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Adventures of Cliff Booth has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Avengers: Doomsday has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Death of Robin Hood has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Drama has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ink has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If All of a Sudden has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cry to Heaven has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If 1949 / Fatherland has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Paper Tiger has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hope has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Minotaur has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Parallel Tales has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Black Ball has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the odds by placing bids and asks. The price of a 'yes' share for a particular film represents the probability of that film winning Best Picture, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders exchange positions, reflecting their collective assessment of each film's chances. This creates a constantly updated probability distribution for the event’s possible outcomes, driven by informed speculation and real-time information flow.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Best Picture Oscar is verifiable from credible public reporting. The Academy Awards ceremony will determine the official winner, and that result will be used to settle this market. Trading will cease once the winner is announced, and payouts will be distributed to those who correctly predicted the outcome. The market’s resolution is based solely on the official announcement by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Critical acclaim from major film festivals, awards from guilds like the Directors Guild of America or the Screen Actors Guild, and strong box office performance can all shift the odds. Unexpected controversies surrounding a film or its creators could also move the market. Furthermore, the release of final Oscar nominations and any major marketing campaigns leading up to the ceremony are likely to influence trading activity. Any significant news or developments related to the nominated films will be reflected in the price action of this market.
