TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$115,807,555
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,188,566,556
336,771
Markets across
33,711
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,629
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
The Odyssey
- Kalshi
The Odyssey - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2027
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars?
$
Intro
This market tracks which film will claim the Best Picture award at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony. On Kalshi, The Odyssey holds the leading position at 47.0%, while Dune: Part Three follows at 15.0%. The market will resolve based on the official winner announced at the Academy Awards ceremony, with settlement occurring after the 99th Academy Awards takes place on or around the end of 2027. Watch the final weeks leading up to the ceremony for shifts in industry sentiment and voting patterns among Academy members.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if the specified film wins Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, expected to be held in March 2027. Only one film can win the award in any given year, though a tie outcome is included as a possible resolution. The Best Picture award represents the Academy's highest honor for cinematic achievement and is voted on by Academy members across all categories.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts and award-show predictions because they reflect real money at stake. While critics, industry analysts, and award-tracking sites publish their own rankings based on voting patterns and sentiment, Kalshi traders price outcomes based on collective belief and financial incentive. Prediction markets tend to update faster when new information emerges—such as industry buzz or voting bloc shifts—whereas analyst forecasts may lag. Comparing the two reveals where market participants see value or risk that traditional forecasters may have missed.
On Kalshi, Oscar for Best Picture outcomes are priced as binary or multi-outcome contracts reflecting the probability traders assign to each film winning. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The leading outcome currently shows 58.0% implied probability, meaning traders believe that outcome has roughly that likelihood. Prices move continuously as new information surfaces—industry news, voting announcements, or shifts in trader sentiment. Each contract's price directly represents the market's real-time assessment, with higher prices indicating stronger conviction and lower prices signaling skepticism or longer odds.
The Oscar for Best Picture market on Kalshi resolves on Dec 31, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official Academy Award announcement for Best Picture at the Oscars ceremony. Once the winner is declared, the contract settles based on which film actually receives the award. Traders holding positions on the winning film receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless. The market remains open for trading right up until the official result is announced.
Several catalysts could shift Oscar for Best Picture odds on Kalshi before Dec 31, 2027. Major film festival wins, critical reviews, and box-office performance influence trader sentiment. Industry voting patterns, early ballot leaks, and pundit predictions often trigger repricing. Unexpected controversies, filmmaker statements, or campaign momentum can swing conviction quickly. Awards from other ceremonies—Golden Globes, BAFTAs, SAG Awards—serve as strong leading indicators and typically drive significant volume and price movement. Real-time social media trends and entertainment news also influence trader behavior as the ceremony draws closer.
