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Oscar winner: Best Actress
kalshi

Oscar winner: Best Actress

Mar 19, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Dec 31, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$319,972
Volume 24h:
$3,307
64%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$203,277
0.85%

Julianne Moore

 - Kalshi

Julianne Moore - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the Oscars?

71%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 72¢ buys you 139 shares | Odds: 71% Total Payout: $139 | Net Profit: $39 Multiplier: 1.39x | ROI: 39% | APY: 32% 430 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Julianne Moore

Trade
71%
Yes 72¢No 29¢
1¢
N/A
$56,996
3%
9%
$36,716
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Inde Navarrette

Trade
18%
Yes 19¢No 82¢
1¢
N/A
$134,154
0.58%
8%
$66,635
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Anne hathaway

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$31,504
0.4%
4%
$18,412
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Zendaya

Trade
4%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$723
N/A
N/A
$723
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Sandra Hüller

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$13,327
0.01%
20%
$11,480
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Olivia Wilde

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$17,318
0.01%
8%
$16,188
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Renate Reinsve

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$16,235
0.2%
1%
$11,129
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Joan Collins

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,301
0%
0%
$3,217
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Tie

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$13,333
0.36%
1%
$13,330
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Penélope Cruz

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$12,386
0.83%
0.83%
$8,091
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Mikey Madison

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$8,213
0.59%
0.59%
$7,573
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Cynthia Erivo

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$6,493
0%
0%
$3,971
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Scarlett Johansson

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,246
0%
0%
$3,171
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Kirsten Dunst

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,040
0%
0%
$1,039
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Dakota Johnson

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$340
0%
122%
$340
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Marion Bailey

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$300
0%
0%
$300
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Shailene Woodley

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$146
0%
0%
$144
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Kate O'Flynn

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$105
0%
0%
$105
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Natalie Portman

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$812
0%
0%
$713
1y 2mo
active
Total markets: 19

Description

The 99th Academy Awards ceremony will take place, with one actress receiving the Best Actress award. This event tracks which actress wins that award from a specified group of nominees.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified actresses wins the Best Actress award at the 99th Academy Awards, expected to be held in March 2027. Each actress outcome is independent; if any one of them wins the award, their corresponding market resolves to Yes. A tie outcome also resolves to Yes if the Academy announces a tied result for Best Actress.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Best Actress Oscar market tracks the current odds for each potential winner, displaying the implied probability of each outcome. You can also view the price history of the market, allowing you to see how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $3,307, and the total overall volume traded in this market, which is $319,972. This provides a clear picture of market activity and where traders are placing their predictions for who will win the award.

Currently, prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts and polls. While many analysts are offering predictions on who will win, this market represents a different form of insight—the collective wisdom of traders who have skin in the game. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. For example, if polls suggest a clear frontrunner, but trading volume in this market indicates significant support for another candidate, it could signal that informed traders believe the polls are inaccurate or that unforeseen factors will influence the outcome. This provides a unique perspective beyond conventional predictions.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2027, following the official announcement of the Best Actress winner at the Academy Awards ceremony. The outcome will be determined by the official results announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and verified against credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100 for the winning actress and 0 for all other contenders. Trading will cease once the winner is declared, and payouts will be distributed accordingly. This provides a clear and objective resolution based on the universally recognized outcome of the event.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Major award show wins leading up to the Oscars—such as the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice Awards, or the Screen Actors Guild Awards—often influence market sentiment. Positive or negative critical reception of films featuring potential nominees can also shift the odds. Unexpected publicity, controversies, or campaign efforts by studios or actors could also play a role. Furthermore, any significant news or events related to the nominees, such as interviews or public appearances, could impact trading activity and move this market. Keep an eye on these developments as the awards season progresses.