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334,440

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Oscar winner: Best Actress
kalshi

Oscar for Best Actress?

Mar 19, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Dec 31, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$145,417
Volume 24h:
$10,780N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$102,991
11%

Julianne Moore

 - Kalshi

Julianne Moore - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the Oscars?

31%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 31¢ buys you 323 shares | Odds: 31% Total Payout: $323 | Net Profit: $223 Multiplier: 3.23x | ROI: 223% | APY: 138% 491 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Julianne Moore

Trade
31%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
N/A
$9,864
0%
4%
$8,312
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Inde Navarrette

Trade
25%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
1¢
N/A
$61,767
2%
31%
$35,607
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Sandra Hüller

Trade
13%
Yes 15¢No 87¢
2¢
N/A
$6,914
0.16%
0.85%
$5,858
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Renate Reinsve

Trade
10%
Yes 13¢No 90¢
3¢
N/A
$8,127
0%
1%
$4,495
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Anne hathaway

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$16,360
12%
31%
$11,640
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Olivia Wilde

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$10,232
16%
108%
$10,232
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Cynthia Erivo

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$5,621
0.04%
0.41%
$3,401
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Mikey Madison

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$5,257
0%
3%
$5,252
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Penélope Cruz

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$6,317
0.05%
0.11%
$3,500
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Joan Collins

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$3,180
0%
0.03%
$3,096
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Tie

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$6,949
676%
776%
$6,946
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Scarlett Johansson

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,101
3%
15%
$3,026
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Kirsten Dunst

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$951
0%
0.63%
$950
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Natalie Portman

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$612
0%
0.66%
$513
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Dakota Johnson

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$95
0%
9,400%
$95
1y 4mo
active
kalshi

Shailene Woodley

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$70
0%
0%
$68
1y 4mo
active
Total markets: 16

Intro

This market tracks which actress will win the Best Actress award at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony. On Kalshi, Renate Reinsve holds the leading probability at 20.0%, while Sandra Hüller follows at 15.0%. The market resolves according to the official Academy Awards results. Watch the ceremony on December 31, 2027, when the Best Actress winner will be announced and the market will settle.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified actresses wins the Best Actress award at the 99th Academy Awards, expected to be held in March 2027. A tie outcome also resolves to Yes if the Academy Awards result in a tied Best Actress award. The resolution is based solely on the official Academy Awards results for the Best Actress category.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts and award-season punditry. Markets reflect real money at stake, creating incentives for accuracy that pure opinion pieces lack. While critics and industry analysts may emphasize narrative or artistic merit, traders price in voting patterns, campaign momentum, and historical precedent. Comparing Kalshi odds to major award prediction sites and entertainment journalism can reveal where the market sees value differently. These gaps sometimes signal emerging consensus or contrarian opportunities as the ceremony approaches.

On Kalshi, Oscar for Best Actress outcomes are priced as binary contracts reflecting the probability each nominee wins. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The leading outcome currently shows 31.0% implied probability, with traders buying and selling shares to express conviction. Prices move continuously based on supply and demand, award show buzz, and new developments in the race. Each contract settles to 100 if that nominee wins or 0 if they do not, making the current price a direct read on market-implied odds. Volume and liquidity vary by nominee, with frontrunners typically showing tighter bid-ask spreads.

The Oscar for Best Actress market resolves on Dec 31, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official Academy Awards ceremony results. Whichever actress is announced as the winner of the Best Actress Oscar will trigger the resolution of all related contracts. Markets typically remain open for trading until the moment of the live announcement, allowing traders to adjust positions right up until the outcome is official. Once the winner is declared, all contracts settle immediately based on that result.

Several catalysts can shift Oscar for Best Actress odds before the ceremony. Major film festival wins, critical acclaim, and industry guild awards like the Golden Globes and SAG Awards historically influence market pricing. Campaign visibility, media coverage, and social media momentum also drive trader sentiment. Surprise nominations or snubs can reshape expectations. Late-breaking news about nominees, voter sentiment leaks, and pundit consensus shifts often trigger sharp price moves. Additionally, performance at precursor events and shifts in narrative around frontrunners versus underdogs create trading opportunities as the market reprices its conviction.