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$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Ohio Governor Election Winner
predict
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Ohio Governor election?

Total volume:
$279,518
Volume 24h:
$441
59%
Liquidity:
$103,548
6%
Open interest:
$86,410
0%

Democrat

 - Polymarket

Democrat - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

53%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 53¢ buys you 189 shares | Odds: 53% Total Payout: $189 | Net Profit: $89 Multiplier: 1.89x | ROI: 89% | APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
53%
2%
Yes 53¢No 48¢
1¢
$20,940
$78,138
0.22%
3%
N/A
N/A
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
47%
1%
Yes 47¢No 54¢
1¢
$22,967
$94,916
0.29%
1%
N/A
N/A
active
predict

Amy Acton (D)

Trade
N/A
N/A
0.7¢
$29,735
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
predict

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)

Trade
N/A
N/A
0.8¢
$29,906
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Stacy Garrity

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$46,882
N/A
N/A
$36,207
2mo 1w
Yes
kalshi

Doug Mastriano

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.4¢
N/A
$33,754
N/A
N/A
$28,041
2mo 1w
No
kalshi

Dan Meuser

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,444
N/A
N/A
$8,867
2mo 1w
No
kalshi

Greg Rothman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,698
N/A
N/A
$6,698
2mo 1w
No
kalshi

Dave White

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,102
N/A
N/A
$4,014
2mo 1w
No
kalshi

Scott Martin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,582
N/A
N/A
$2,582
2mo 1w
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The two platforms are auditing completely different elections: Polymarket covers the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial race, while Kalshi covers the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race. This is a fundamental scope mismatch that makes cross-platform comparison impossible and indicates a data ingestion error.Hero tip: Do not attempt to arbitrage or hedge these markets against each other. They resolve to entirely different state elections with different candidates, timelines, and political landscapes. Treat them as completely independent markets with no logical relationship.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve based on the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. Resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official state certification if all three haven't called the race). The market structure includes party-level outcomes (Democrats, Republicans) and individual candidate options (A through J, plus Other). Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election.'
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve based on Republican Party nomination outcomes for the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, with specific named candidates (Dan Meuser, Doug Mastriano, Scott Martin, Dave White, Greg Rothman, Stacy Garrity). Resolution is triggered by winning the Republican nomination, not the general election. Quote: 'If [candidate] wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Pennsylvania Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

The Ohio Governor Election Winner dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial race. It displays the current implied probability of each candidate winning, live price movements, and historical odds charts. The dashboard also shows $277,993 in total group volume and $47,372 in 24-hour trading volume, helping you gauge market liquidity and recent trader interest. This data updates continuously as new trades execute, giving you a live window into how prediction market participants are pricing the race.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate broader information—including campaign funding, historical voting patterns, and real-time political developments. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate forward-looking expectations from participants with financial stakes in accuracy. For the 2026 Ohio governor race, comparing Polymarket odds to major polling averages reveals whether the market is pricing in scenarios polls may not yet reflect, such as candidate momentum shifts or demographic turnout assumptions. This gap can signal where informed traders see edge relative to public surveys.

On Polymarket, the Ohio Governor Election Winner market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into real-time probabilities. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The top outcome currently reflects a 52.5% implied probability, meaning traders collectively price that scenario at roughly those odds. As traders deposit capital and place bets, the price adjusts dynamically. Polymarket's design incentivizes arbitrage and information discovery, so prices typically tighten as the election approaches and new information surfaces. Volume on this market totals $277,993, indicating sustained trader participation.

Several catalysts could shift odds for the 2026 Ohio governor race. Major candidate announcements, debate performances, and campaign spending surges typically trigger sharp price moves. Economic data—unemployment, wage growth, inflation—affects voter mood and candidate viability. Scandals, endorsements from high-profile figures, and shifts in national political momentum also influence trader sentiment. Primary results in other states may signal broader party strength. Polling releases, especially late-cycle surveys, often compress odds as the election nears. Unexpected events—leadership changes, legislative victories or defeats—can reshape perceptions of incumbent or challenger competence, driving rapid repricing on Polymarket.