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Science and Technology
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on August 17?
kalshi
opinion
polymarket

NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on August 17?

Total volume:
$65,046
Volume 24h:
$14,842
9,536%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$35,656
54%

Above $6.00

 - Kalshi

Above $6.00 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 1, 2026

Time left: 04d:08h:46m

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.00 in August 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $6.00

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 5¢
5¢
N/A
$7,543
16%
22%
$4,053
4d 8h 46m
active
kalshi

Above $3.00

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$4,194
0%
0%
$2,681
4d 8h 46m
active
kalshi

Above $5.50

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$3,032
0%
0%
$1,577
4d 8h 46m
active
kalshi

Above $3.50

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$2,816
0%
20%
$2,076
4d 8h 46m
active
kalshi

Above $4.00

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$2,766
0%
0%
$2,390
4d 8h 46m
active
kalshi

Above $5.00

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$2,039
0%
5%
$1,367
4d 8h 46m
active
kalshi

Above $4.50

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$1,496
0%
0%
$1,193
4d 8h 46m
active
kalshi

Above $7.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$20,854
92%
111%
$15,394
4d 8h 46m
active
kalshi

Above $6.50

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$19,395
19%
35%
$4,924
4d 8h 46m
active
opinion

140

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 46m
active
opinion

150

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 46m
active
opinion

160

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 46m
active
opinion

170

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 46m
active
opinion

180

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 46m
active
opinion

190

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 46m
active
opinion

200

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 46m
active
opinion

210

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 46m
active
polymarket

$215

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
opinion

220

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 46m
active
polymarket

$220

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
opinion

230

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 46m
active
polymarket

$230

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
opinion

240

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 46m
active
opinion

250

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 46m
active
opinion

260

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 46m
active
Total markets: 25 of 27

Description

This event group focuses on whether NVIDIA's (NVDA) stock price will close above various specified thresholds on August 17, 2026. The markets differ in their target price thresholds and resolution criteria.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use Pyth's closing price data for August 17, 2026 to determine if NVDA closes above their respective thresholds, with consistent tie-breaking (exactly equal resolves as No) and adjustment rules for corporate actions.Primary resolution logic: Pyth (https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD)

Core resolution logic:

  • Use Pyth's official closing price for NVDA on August 17, 2026
  • If the closing price is strictly greater than the market's threshold, resolve Yes
  • If the closing price is less than or equal to the threshold, resolve No
  • Adjust for stock splits/reverse splits using Pyth's split-adjusted historical data
  • If August 17 is not a trading day, resolve 50-50
  • Use last valid Pyth price if no close exists for that day

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Match: If closing price equals the threshold, resolve No (applies to all markets)
  • No Trading: If NVDA does not trade at all on August 17, resolve 50-50 (Polymarket specific)
  • System Outage: If Pyth has no valid price for August 17, use official exchange closing price
Timing: Resolution occurs after market close on August 17, 2026, using Pyth data as publishedOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on August 17, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the arithmetic mean of hourly compute prices for the NVIDIA B200 reported by Ornn throughout August 2026, using USD values rounded to two decimal places. Each threshold ($4.00, $4.50, $5.00, $5.50, $6.00, $6.50, and $7.00 per hour) represents a separate outcome, with resolution to Yes if the monthly average exceeds the specified threshold. Data revisions made after the expiration of August 2026 are not incorporated into the final calculation.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting NVIDIA (NVDA), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which NVIDIA (NVDA) trades governs.