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Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
kalshi

Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?

Jan 5, 2026, 10:00 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$520,047
Volume 24h:
$3,807
107%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$262,203
0.98%

0 cuts

 - Kalshi

0 cuts - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the Fed cut rates 0 times at emergency meetings?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 97.6¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% | APY: 15% 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

0 cuts

Trade
95%
1%
Yes 97.6¢No 4.7¢
2.3¢
N/A
$293,496
0.42%
0.78%
$122,315
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

3 cuts

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99¢
0.7¢
N/A
$32,967
2%
3%
$23,162
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

4 cuts

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.6¢
0.3¢
N/A
$24,713
3%
3%
$16,453
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

2 cuts

Trade
0%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.7¢
1.2¢
N/A
$44,130
1%
2%
$27,250
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

1 cuts

Trade
0%
Yes 2.7¢No 99.9¢
2.6¢
N/A
$124,741
0.47%
2%
$73,024
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will cut the target federal funds rate exactly once at emergency meetings during 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 95.9% probability to the outcome that the Fed will cut rates 0 times at emergency meetings. The market resolves based on whether the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly one time at emergency meetings in 2026, as determined by the resolution source. Traders should watch the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings scheduled throughout 2026, as any indication of economic distress could signal a potential emergency rate cut before the resolution date of December 31, 2026.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the exact number of emergency rate cuts made by the Federal Reserve during 2026. Each 25 basis points of cuts equals one cut for counting purposes (for example, a 50 basis point cut counts as two cuts, a 75 basis point cut counts as three cuts, and so on). Only cuts made at emergency meetings are counted; regular scheduled FOMC meetings are excluded. The market resolves to Yes for whichever outcome matches the actual total number of emergency cuts implemented during the calendar year 2026.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 2026 rate cut market tracks the current odds of different outcomes regarding the number of emergency rate cuts made by the Federal Reserve in 2026. You’ll find the implied probability of each scenario, a price history showing how the market has moved over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3,333. The total volume traded to date is $520,047, indicating significant interest in this economic question. The top outcome currently favored by traders is that the Fed will cut rates 0 times at emergency meetings, with a chance of 95.0%.

Currently, analysts’ forecasts regarding the number of emergency rate cuts in 2026 are varied, with predictions ranging from zero to multiple cuts depending on economic conditions and inflation data. This market allows a different kind of forecasting – one driven by the collective judgment of traders who have ‘skin in the game’. While analyst opinions are valuable, they often differ from the probabilities reflected in this market, as traders directly express their beliefs with capital. The difference between these two approaches can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential economic scenarios.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the odds by placing bids and asks. The price of a contract representing a specific outcome (e.g., zero rate cuts) reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a value that represents the consensus view. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the volume of buy and sell orders at different price levels, indicates how easily traders can enter and exit positions, influencing price stability.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of emergency rate cuts made by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding any unscheduled changes to the federal funds rate. The market will determine which outcome—zero, one, two, or more rate cuts—accurately reflects the actual number of emergency rate cuts implemented during the calendar year 2026.

Several key economic indicators and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, would be major catalysts. Stronger-than-expected economic growth or a resilient labor market could reduce expectations of rate cuts, while a recession or significant economic slowdown could increase them. Geopolitical events and unexpected shocks to the financial system could also influence the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and, consequently, the price action in this market.