TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
David Gyasi
- Kalshi
David Gyasi - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2030
Will David Gyasi be the next James Bond?
$
Intro
This market tracks the likelihood of various actors being selected as the next James Bond. Currently, the consensus probability favors Callum Turner at 48.0%, with Jack Lowden following at 43.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on whether Callum Turner is cast as the next James Bond before January 1, 2030, as defined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as this is the date by which Polymarket requires an official announcement to resolve the market to ‘Yes’.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket has a defined resolution date and 'No Bond chosen' outcome, while Kalshi has a longer timeframe and resolves on 'cast as' rather than 'announced'.Hero tip: Consider the differing timelines and the possibility of no announcement within Polymarket's timeframe when evaluating market probabilities. Kalshi's longer timeframe introduces more uncertainty.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves Yes if a listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Includes a 'No Bond chosen' outcome if no actor is announced. Primary source: Amazon MGM Studios or consensus of credible reporting.
- Kalshi: Resolves Yes if *any* of the listed actors is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030. No 'No Bond chosen' outcome. Focuses on casting, not necessarily public announcement.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Aaron Pierre is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Aaron Taylor-Johnson is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tom Hardy is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Henry Cavill is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If James Norton is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Damson Idris is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Richard Madden is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Regé-Jean Page is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Theo James is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cillian Murphy is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jonathan Bailey is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Harris Dickinson is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jack Lowden is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Idris Elba is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tom Holland is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jacob Elordi is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Charlie Hunnam is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Scott Rose-Marsh is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Josh O'Connor is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Callum Turner is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nicholas Hoult is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Henry Ashton is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tom Francis is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on studio announcements and industry rumors, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. While there can be correlation, the market can sometimes identify undervalued or overvalued candidates based on factors analysts may overlook. This is because traders are directly putting capital behind their beliefs, creating a more dynamic and potentially more accurate assessment of the probabilities involved in the next James Bond selection.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Different user bases, varying liquidity, and distinct market-making strategies all contribute to price discrepancies. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond? at 37.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will David Gyasi be the next James Bond? at 96.0%. These differences can also arise from temporary imbalances in buying and selling pressure on each platform, or differing interpretations of the same news or information regarding potential candidates for the role.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2030, with the outcome confirmed once the official announcement of the next James Bond actor is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the first official confirmation from Eon Productions, the company responsible for producing the James Bond films. The market will then determine which outcome – which actor was selected – was correctly predicted by traders. The outcome will be determined by the publicly available information regarding the casting decision.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Eon Productions regarding casting decisions or even narrowing down the list of potential actors would be major catalysts. Leaks from reliable sources, interviews with key personnel involved in the production, and even significant media coverage focusing on specific actors could also shift the probabilities. Any news suggesting a particular actor is gaining traction or losing favor with the studio is likely to move the market, as traders adjust their positions based on the latest information.