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Next French Presidential Election
kalshi
limitless
polymarket
predict
opinion

Who will win the next French presidential election?

Total volume:
$160,208,396
Volume 24h:
$1,054,180
101%
Liquidity:
$19,964,574
2%
Open interest:
$729,055
5%

Marine Le Pen

all

5 markets

Kalshi

Limitless

Predict

Polymarket

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

50%chance
Amount

$

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Marine Le Pen

Trade
50%
Yes 50¢No 51¢
1¢
N/A
$302,099
4%
66%
$168,981
7mo 6d
active
limitless

Marine Le Pen

Trade
45%
6%
Yes 44.8¢No 55.3¢
1.5¢
N/A
$970
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

Marine Le Pen

Trade
45%
Yes 45¢No 55.7¢
0.7¢
$63,669
$276,219
0.07%
2%
N/A
6mo 4d
active
polymarket

Marine Le Pen

Trade
44%
1%
Yes 44.5¢No 55.7¢
0.2¢
$490,253
$4,514,905
0.8%
9%
N/A
5mo 3w 2d
active
opinion

Marine Le Pen

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
44.7%
Yes 46.1¢No 54.4¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1.5¢
opinion

Édouard Philippe

Trade
25%
Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢
—
N/A
$126,587
0%
N/A
N/A
6mo 4d
active
polymarket

Édouard Philippe

Trade
19%
Yes 19¢No 82¢
1¢
$361,568
$2,620,315
2%
8%
N/A
5mo 3w 2d
active
predict

Édouard Philippe

Trade
19%
1%
Yes 18.9¢No 82¢
0.9¢
$66,631
$214,895
0.48%
31%
N/A
6mo 4d
active
limitless

Édouard Philippe

Trade
19%
33%
Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢
1¢
N/A
$9
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Édouard Philippe

Trade
15%
1%
Yes 16¢No 85¢
1¢
N/A
$56,491
0.37%
7%
$27,822
7mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
18.4%
Yes 19.4¢No 81.2¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

David Lisnard

Trade
14%
Yes 14.2¢No 85.9¢
0.1¢
$279,585
$5,511,678
2%
8%
N/A
5mo 3w 2d
active
kalshi

David Lisnard

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
N/A
$84,928
0.05%
18%
$51,802
7mo 6d
active
predict

David Lisnard

Trade
11%
Yes 21.9¢No 99.5¢
21.4¢
$31,296
$55
0%
0%
N/A
6mo 4d
active
opinion

David Lisnard

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
14.1%
Yes 16¢No 91.5¢
Avg: 7.5¢Max: 21.4¢
polymarket

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Trade
11%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
$664,283
$2,565,107
2%
8%
N/A
5mo 3w 2d
active
limitless

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Trade
11%
Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢
1¢
N/A
$821
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Trade
10%
Yes 10.8¢No 90.1¢
0.9¢
$55,990
$471,258
0%
10%
N/A
6mo 4d
active
kalshi

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Trade
8%
Yes 8.3¢No 91.8¢
0.1¢
N/A
$63,492
0.72%
25%
$46,968
7mo 6d
active
opinion

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
10.4%
Yes 10.2¢No 90.4¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

François Hollande

Trade
4%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$84,548
0.84%
9%
$66,061
7mo 6d
active
polymarket

François Hollande

Trade
3%
Yes 3.3¢No 96.8¢
0.1¢
$194,875
$2,712,327
0.52%
4%
N/A
5mo 3w 2d
active
opinion

François Hollande

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6mo 4d
active
predict

François Hollande

Trade
N/A
N/A
28.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.3%
Yes 4.2¢No 96.4¢
Avg: 10¢Max: 28.8¢
polymarket

Raphaël Glucksmann

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 3.3¢No 96.8¢
0.1¢
$270,216
$3,096,584
1%
8%
N/A
5mo 3w 2d
active
predict

Raphaël Glucksmann

Trade
2%
Yes 2.9¢No 99.9¢
2.8¢
$31,239
$7
0%
17%
N/A
6mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.2%
Yes 3.1¢No 98.4¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2.8¢
Total markets: 25 of 136

Description

This group forecasts the winner of the next French Presidential Election, currently expected in 2027. The election utilizes a two-round system, and markets resolve based on the candidate who ultimately wins, even if a second round is required. A deadline of December 31, 2027, exists for resolution, defaulting to 'Other' if no winner is declared by then.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi creates individual 'Yes/No' markets for each candidate, while Polymarket has a single market resolving to the overall winner (or 'Other').Hero tip: Focus on individual candidate probabilities on Kalshi. The absence of a clear winner among listed candidates doesn't guarantee an 'Other' outcome as defined on Polymarket.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the winning candidate, with a defined 'Other' outcome if results are unavailable by December 31, 2027. Uses official French government sources for resolution. "This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/)"
  • Kalshi: Each candidate has a separate 'Yes/No' market. Resolution is simply whether that specific candidate wins. No overarching 'Other' market exists. "If [Candidate Name] wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Kalshi

If Édouard Philippe wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Éric Zemmour wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Jordan Bardella wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Michel Barnier wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Xavier Bertrand wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If David Lisnard wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Valérie Pécresse wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Bruno Retailleau wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Laurent Wauquiez wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Gabriel Attal wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Élisabeth Borne wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Yaël Braun-Pivet wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Jean Castex wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Gérald Darmanin wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Bruno Le Maire wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If François Bayrou wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernard Cazeneuve wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Carole Delga wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Olivier Faure wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Manuel Bompard wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Mathilde Panot wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If François Ruffin wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Dominique de Villepin wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Sébastien Lecornu wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If Sarah Knafo wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. If François Hollande wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Limitless

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Opinion

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the aggregate sentiment surrounding the French presidential election. Currently, the total volume across both platforms exceeds $160,208,394, with $841,794 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of predictions, reflecting what traders believe is the probability of various outcomes. The French presidential election market is designed to give a real-time, crowdsourced forecast, differing from traditional polling methods. This market aggregates data to provide a comprehensive outlook on the election’s potential results.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, revealing stronger convictions. While polls can be influenced by social desirability bias, this market incentivizes accurate predictions. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record of forecasting election outcomes, sometimes outperforming polls. However, it’s important to remember that both provide valuable, but distinct, insights into the potential results of the French presidential election.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Differences in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules all play a role. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a unique set of participants with varying information and risk tolerances. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can influence price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? at 44.4%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? at 50.0%, reflecting these differing dynamics within the French presidential election market.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the French government following the presidential election. The market will reflect the winner of the election as determined by the official vote count. Traders should monitor news sources for official announcements as this will determine the final outcome of this market concerning the French presidential election.

Numerous signals could shift the odds in this market. Major political endorsements, significant shifts in economic conditions, and unexpected developments in the campaigns of key candidates would all likely cause price fluctuations. Public debates and gaffes by candidates could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, any major geopolitical events or changes in public opinion, as measured by traditional polls, could influence trader behavior and move the French presidential election market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the market’s movements.