TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$84,940,147

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,022,755

334,261

Markets across

33,310

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,574

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA

Science and Technology

Netanyahu arrested by…?

limitless

predict

polymarket

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Total volume:

$478,186

Volume 24h:

$0

100%

Liquidity:

$115,412

12%

Open interest:

$4,911N/A

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

all

3 markets

Limitless

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Amount

$

Trade on

limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 51¢ buys you 196 shares | Odds: 50% Total Payout: $196 | Net Profit: $96 Multiplier: 1.96x | ROI: 96% High Projected APY: 572% 126 days to resolution

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

limitless

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

50%

Yes 49.5¢

No 50.5¢

3¢

N/A

$2,440

0%

0%

N/A

4mo 6d

active

predict

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

48%

Yes 50.1¢

No 53.5¢

3.6¢

$103,446

$453,407

0%

0.27%

N/A

4mo 5d

active

polymarket

December 31

6%

Yes 6¢

No 95¢

1¢

$4,509

$6,232

0%

0.32%

N/A

4mo 6d

active

Market Consensus

34.7%

Yes 35.2¢

No 66.3¢

Avg: 2.5¢

Max: 3.6¢

polymarket

September 30

2%

Yes 2.5¢

No 98.6¢

1.1¢

$7,457

$16,106

0%

7%

N/A

1mo 4d

active

Total markets: 4

Description

This event group focuses on the political future of Benjamin Netanyahu, specifically whether he will resign or be removed from the position of Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2026, and whether he will be arrested by specific dates.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets share consistent resolution criteria regarding the need for official announcements or actions from Israeli government sources, with credible reporting serving as a secondary verification method.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the government of the State of Israel, with consensus of credible reporting as supplementary verification

Core resolution logic:

A resignation announcement or removal from office before December 31, 2026 resolves the 'out by end of 2026' markets to 'Yes'
Physical arrest meeting specific criteria (booking, custody in response to charges, etc.) before the listed date resolves arrest markets to 'Yes'
Official government sources are primary, with credible reporting as secondary verification

Edge cases & clarifications:

Announcement vs Action: An announcement of resignation or removal before the resolution date suffices for 'Yes' resolution, regardless of when actual stepping down occurs
Arrest Criteria: Issuance of arrest warrant or charges without physical custody does not qualify; release on bail or similar post-arrest developments do not affect resolution once qualifying arrest occurs

Timing: Resolution occurs on or after December 31, 2026 for 'out by end of 2026' markets, and on or after the listed date (September 30 or December 31) for arrest markets, based on verification of qualifying eventsOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading volume for the Netanyahu out by end of 2026 question across Polymarket and Predict. It tracks the current probability consensus that Benjamin Netanyahu will no longer hold office by the end of 2026, along with cumulative trading activity across both platforms. The combined group has processed $476,784 in total volume, with $39 traded in the last 24 hours. This multi-platform view lets you monitor how different prediction markets price the same political outcome and identify emerging consensus or divergence in real time.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Predict aggregate real-money bets and forward-looking trader expectations, which often differ from traditional polling. Polls measure current voter sentiment or approval, while prediction markets incorporate longer-term scenarios, coalition dynamics, legal challenges, and geopolitical factors that could force Netanyahu from office over the next two years. Markets tend to reflect tail risks and structural uncertainties that polls miss. The current market consensus sits around 50 percent, suggesting traders view Netanyahu's tenure through 2026 as genuinely uncertain, balancing political resilience against potential removal mechanisms.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Predict operate with different user bases, liquidity pools, fee structures, and trading interfaces, which can create price gaps even on identical questions. Polymarket currently shows 5.5% while Predict shows 48.3%, a spread of 42.8 percentage points. Differences arise from varying trader sophistication, regional participation, platform incentives, and the timing of large trades. Arbitrage opportunities may close these gaps over time, but temporary divergence is normal and reflects the decentralized nature of prediction markets.

Key catalysts include Israeli elections or coalition negotiations that could unseat his government, judicial outcomes in ongoing legal cases, security escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs affecting domestic politics, health or personal circumstances, and shifts in coalition partner loyalty. International pressure, sanctions, or regional conflict could also reshape Israeli politics. Major corruption convictions or acquittals would move markets sharply. Polling shifts, party defections, and statements from coalition partners signal changing probabilities. Traders monitor Israeli media, court calendars, and geopolitical developments closely. Each development reshapes the perceived likelihood that Netanyahu remains in office through the end of 2026.