Name: More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Start: 2026-02-25T15:00:00.000Z
End: 2027-03-01T15:00:00.000Z

Question 1

What does the tech layoffs market dashboard track?

Accepted Answer

On Kalshi, the tech layoffs market dashboard provides real-time insights into where traders believe the number of tech layoffs in 2026 will land compared to 2025. You can view the current odds, reflecting the probability of either outcome, as well as a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $154, and the total volume traded to date, which is $31,501,248. This allows you to gauge market interest and activity in this specific prediction market.

Question 2

How do prediction market odds compare to analyst forecasts?

Accepted Answer

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a strong expectation of more tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025. It’s important to note that prediction market odds represent the collective wisdom of traders, which can differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often rely on economic models and company reports, this market reflects a broader range of information and potential future events. Comparing this market to external forecasts can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes and the factors influencing them.

Question 3

How is this market priced on Kalshi?

Accepted Answer

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome – in this case, “More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?” and “Fewer or the same tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?”. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current probability of “More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?” is 94.6%, reflecting the collective assessment of traders on Kalshi.

Question 4

When does this market resolve, and what determines the outcome?

Accepted Answer

This market resolves around Mar 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding the total number of confirmed layoffs announced by major technology companies in both 2025 and 2026. The specific data sources used for verification will be determined at the time of resolution to ensure accuracy and transparency. The outcome will be a simple binary determination: were there more layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?

Question 5

What signals or events could move this market between now and resolution?

Accepted Answer

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major economic downturns or recessions would likely increase the probability of further tech layoffs. Conversely, strong economic growth and increased profitability within the tech sector could decrease it. Company-specific announcements regarding hiring freezes, restructuring plans, or large-scale layoffs will also be key catalysts. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in government regulations impacting the tech industry could also play a role in moving this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in trader sentiment.

More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?