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Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?
kalshi
polymarket

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?

Total volume:
$2,739,835
Volume 24h:
$35,983
19%
Liquidity:
$13,306
4%
Open interest:
$1,135,243
2%

Before election day 2026

 - Kalshi

Before election day 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early?

6%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before election day 2026

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 5.4¢No 94.9¢
0.3¢
N/A
$2,733,824
1%
10%
$1,135,243
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$13,306
$6,011
2%
2%
N/A
4d 2h 37m
active
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks whether Senator Mitch McConnell will cast any vote in the U.S. Senate on any legislative matter before September 1, 2026. The outcome hinges on McConnell's physical or procedural participation in Senate voting processes during this window.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms resolve to Yes if McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31, 2026. Kalshi adds a resignation clause that does not affect the core voting requirement.Primary resolution logic: United States Senate official vote records, with consensus of credible reporting as a secondary validation source

Core resolution logic:

  • Yes if McConnell casts any Senate vote on or before August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
  • No if no such vote occurs by the deadline
  • Kalshi additionally resolves Yes if McConnell resigns before November 3, 2026, but this does not override the voting requirement for Polymarket

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Resignation Timing: Kalshi resolves Yes if McConnell resigns before November 3, 2026, regardless of voting history. Polymarket remains unaffected by resignation status.
  • Proxy Voting: Votes cast by proxy or recorded absentia do NOT count unless explicitly documented as McConnell's vote in the official record.
Timing: Resolution occurs after August 31, 2026, once Senate records for that day are finalized and publicly availableOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky casts a vote in the United States Senate on any bill, resolution, nomination, motion, or any other measure between market creation and August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If Mitch McConnell resigns their office, or announces they will resign their office, before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.