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334,261

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4,574

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Minnesota Republican Senate Primary election?

Total volume:
$502,163
Volume 24h:
$212,493
642%
Liquidity:
$120,721
34%
Open interest:
$275,293
112%

Michele Tafoya

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 11, 2026

Closed: Aug 12, 12:50 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Michele Tafoya

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$111,082
N/A
N/A
$78,213
0d 0h 0m
Yes
polymarket

Michele Tafoya

View
99%
Yes 99.8¢No 1.9¢
1.7¢
N/A
$13,534
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
polymarket

David Hann

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$13,135
$24,039
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

David Hann

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,131
N/A
N/A
$15,202
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Julia Coleman

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$13,354
$6,430
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Julia Coleman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,356
N/A
N/A
$1,991
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Alycia Gruenhagen

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$13,648
$5,537
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Alycia Gruenhagen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,078
N/A
N/A
$1,078
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Kristin Robbins

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$12,868
$4,174
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Kristin Robbins

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,470
N/A
N/A
$953
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Tom Weiler

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$13,140
$3,777
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Tom Weiler

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$997
N/A
N/A
$997
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Jim Nash

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$13,947
$3,731
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Christopher Brooks

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$12,996
$3,037
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Raymond Petersen

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$13,897
$2,514
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Mike Ruoho

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$13,736
$1,936
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Adam Schwarze

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$168,321
N/A
N/A
$110,100
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Adam Schwarze

View
0%
1%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,948
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Royce White

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$71,758
N/A
N/A
$59,921
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Royce White

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,736
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Mark York

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,576
N/A
N/A
$6,839
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Candidate K

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Candidate M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Candidate O

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Candidate J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 25 of 28

Intro

This market tracks which candidate will win the Republican primary nomination for United States Senator from Minnesota. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus shows Michele Tafoya at 94.7% to secure the Republican nomination. Resolution will be determined by the official Minnesota Republican Party announcement of the primary results. Watch for the primary election scheduled for August 11, 2026, which will determine the Republican nominee.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on which candidate wins the Republican Party nomination for the 2026 Minnesota Senate seat, with resolution triggered by official party announcement and acceptance of the nomination.Primary resolution logic: Official Minnesota Republican Party announcement of the primary/nomination results

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves YES if and only if the named individual wins the Republican nomination for the 2026 Minnesota Senate seat.
  • Market resolves NO if the individual does not win the nomination or declines the nomination.
  • Exactly ONE candidate market in the group will resolve YES; all others resolve NO.
  • If no primary takes place, Polymarket resolves to Other; Kalshi markets would resolve NO for all named candidates.
  • Resolution is based on official party announcement, not preliminary results or media projections.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Primary Held: If the Minnesota Republican Party does not hold a primary election, Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other. Kalshi individual candidate markets would resolve NO.
  • Nomination Declined: If a candidate wins the primary but declines the nomination, that candidate's market resolves NO and the nomination may pass to another candidate per party rules.
  • Unnamed Candidate Winner: If a candidate not listed on either platform wins the nomination, Polymarket resolves to Other or another candidate; Kalshi markets all resolve NO.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon official Minnesota Republican Party announcement of the nomination winner and confirmation of acceptance.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Kalshi

If Royce White wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Julia Coleman wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kristin Robbins wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If David Hann wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Adam Schwarze wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tom Weiler wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alycia Gruenhagen wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michele Tafoya wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mark York wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds for the Minnesota Republican Senate Primary across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking which candidate will secure the Republican nomination. It consolidates market data from a combined liquidity pool of $502,162 in total volume, with $210,641 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard displays live probability estimates for each candidate, allowing you to monitor consensus shifts as new information emerges. By comparing prices across both platforms simultaneously, you gain insight into how different market participants value each outcome and identify potential arbitrage or conviction signals.

The market resolves on Aug 11, 2026, coinciding with the official Minnesota Republican Senate Primary election. Resolution is determined by the official primary results announced by Minnesota election authorities. The candidate who receives the most votes in the Republican primary and secures the party's nomination will be declared the winner. Markets remain open for trading until the resolution date, allowing participants to adjust positions as primary day approaches and final campaign events unfold.

Key catalysts include candidate endorsements from prominent Minnesota Republicans or national figures, campaign finance disclosures revealing fundraising strength, debate performances and media coverage, polling releases showing shifts in voter preference, and grassroots organizing metrics. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or scandals could dramatically reshape odds. Turnout models and early voting data in the weeks before the primary will also influence trader positioning. National political developments affecting Republican momentum, as well as local issues resonating with Minnesota voters, may trigger repricing across both Polymarket and Kalshi.