Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Currently, the probability of a major meteor strike in 2026, as reflected by this market, is relatively low. This contrasts with most scientific consensus, which suggests such events are rare but not impossible. While professional astronomical analysis focuses on identifying and tracking potentially hazardous near-Earth objects, this market represents a broader aggregation of beliefs and potential information not captured by traditional forecasting. The differences highlight how prediction markets can offer a unique perspective on low-probability, high-impact events, incorporating diverse viewpoints beyond expert opinion.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the event’s likelihood. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of a major meteor strike occurring in 2026. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. Currently, the top outcome, a major meteor strike, has a chance percentage of 4.2%.

This market resolves around Mar 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a meteor impact of 10 kilotons or greater is officially recorded by reputable scientific organizations. The outcome will be determined based on publicly available data from sources like NASA and other astronomical observatories. This market will settle to 100% if such an event occurs and 0% if it does not, based on verifiable evidence.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. A confirmed sighting of a large near-Earth object on a potential collision course with Earth would likely cause a sharp increase in the price of shares. Conversely, successful deflection efforts or revised trajectory calculations indicating no impact risk would likely decrease the price. Increased media coverage of asteroid detection programs or reports from space agencies regarding potential threats could also shift sentiment. Any major scientific publications related to meteor impact probabilities could also move this market.