TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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CPI YoY in November
kalshi

CPI YoY in November

Jun 10, 2026, 1:20 PM EST - Dec 10, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$615,455
Volume 24h:
$3,372
599%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$264,153
0.04%

Above 3.2%

 - Kalshi

Above 3.2% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 10, 2026

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in November 2026?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 7% 44 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3.2%

Trade
98%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$12,566
0%
0%
$2,829
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 3.0%

Trade
98%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$1,841
0%
22%
$846
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 3.1%

Trade
98%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$1,780
0%
0%
$723
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 3.3%

Trade
97%
Yes 98¢No 3¢
1¢
N/A
$10,130
0.11%
0.11%
$3,853
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 3.4%

Trade
96%
Yes 97¢No 4¢
1¢
N/A
$8,191
0%
0%
$4,535
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 3.5%

Trade
93%
Yes 95¢No 6¢
1¢
N/A
$15,092
8%
8%
$3,224
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 3.6%

Trade
87%
3%
Yes 86¢No 17¢
3¢
N/A
$18,681
7%
68%
$9,376
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 3.7%

Trade
75%
Yes 75¢No 26¢
1¢
N/A
$18,393
0.69%
7%
$6,366
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 3.8%

Trade
62%
2%
Yes 63¢No 38¢
1¢
N/A
$97,663
0.15%
2%
$53,554
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 3.9%

Trade
44%
1%
Yes 45¢No 56¢
1¢
N/A
$106,629
0.05%
0.35%
$36,327
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.0%

Trade
31%
Yes 34¢No 68¢
2¢
N/A
$69,555
0.4%
5%
$31,635
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.1%

Trade
24%
Yes 25¢No 76¢
1¢
N/A
$85,889
0.02%
34%
$37,441
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.2%

Trade
16%
4%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
N/A
$20,981
0.08%
1%
$10,348
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.3%

Trade
14%
Yes 14¢No 89¢
3¢
N/A
$17,578
0%
14%
$10,198
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.4%

Trade
11%
2%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
N/A
$17,520
0.06%
10%
$8,922
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.5%

Trade
10%
1%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
N/A
$55,630
0.19%
15%
$19,528
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.6%

Trade
9%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$18,459
0%
13%
$8,223
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.7%

Trade
4%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$18,707
0.26%
38%
$10,234
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 5.0%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$9,303
0%
43%
$2,375
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.9%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$5,632
0%
29%
$1,798
1mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.8%

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$5,237
4%
27%
$1,817
1mo 2w
active
Total markets: 21

Description

This event tracks whether the Consumer Price Index will experience inflation exceeding 3.0% over the twelve-month period ending in November 2026, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The market structure allows participants to bet on multiple escalating inflation thresholds, from 3.0% up to 5.0% in increments of 0.1 percentage points. The outcome depends on the official one-decimal place CPI figure released by the BLS for that period.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the Consumer Price Index year-over-year increase for the twelve months ending November 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to one decimal place. The event encompasses multiple thresholds ranging from above 3.0% to above 5.0%, allowing participants to bet on different inflation intensity levels. If a federal government shutdown delays the data release and impacts the reliability of the source agency, the market's expiration date will be extended to the sooner of the actual data release or six months after the shutdown ends.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the November 2026 inflation market displays the current odds of different inflation ranges, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3,372, and the total volume traded to date, which is $615,455. The top outcome currently favored by traders is that the rate of CPI inflation will be above 3.1% for the year ending in November 2026, with a chance of 98.0%.

Currently, prediction market participants are expressing a view on November 2026 inflation that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While many economic analysts predict a continued decline in inflation, this market reflects traders’ assessment of potential upside risks. It’s important to note that prediction markets represent a collective intelligence, incorporating a wide range of information and perspectives, and can sometimes anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in conventional economic projections. Do analysts anticipate a similar outcome to what’s priced in this market?

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different inflation outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust, providing a real-time assessment of inflation expectations. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of those trading in this market, and is influenced by factors like economic data releases and geopolitical events.

This market resolves around Dec 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for the month of November 2026, expressed as a year-over-year percentage change. The market will determine whether the reported CPI YoY figure falls into one of the predefined outcome ranges offered on Kalshi.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact the November 2026 inflation market. Unexpected changes in energy prices, particularly oil and natural gas, are major drivers of inflation. Geopolitical instability, such as conflicts or trade disruptions, could also lead to supply chain issues and increased prices. Furthermore, shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, including interest rate adjustments or quantitative easing measures, will be closely watched. Stronger-than-expected economic growth or a tightening labor market could also put upward pressure on inflation, influencing trading activity in this market.