TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
More than 9 weeks
- Kalshi
More than 9 weeks - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 26, 2026
How long will SWAG be #1?
$
Description
A music album may hold the top position on the Billboard 200 chart for multiple consecutive weeks.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by tracking consecutive weeks that "SWAG" maintains the #1 position on the Billboard 200. The market closes the following 10am ET after either the achievement occurs or the streak ends. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific threshold: more than 1 week, more than 2 weeks, more than 3 weeks, more than 4 weeks, more than 5 weeks, more than 6 weeks, more than 7 weeks, more than 8 weeks, more than 9 weeks, or more than 10 weeks of consecutive #1 placement. Only the first streak the song achieves at #1 is considered for resolution purposes.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. While analysts may offer opinions based on industry knowledge and trends, this market represents the aggregated predictions of a diverse group of traders. Currently, the top outcome on Kalshi has a chance percentage of 1.0%. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as markets can incorporate information and react to news more quickly than traditional analysis. This difference can highlight areas where the 'wisdom of the crowd' diverges from expert opinion regarding the longevity of 'SWAG' at the top.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the number of buy and sell orders at various price points, also influences price movements. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own assessments of 'SWAG's' potential chart performance, creating a dynamic pricing environment.
This market resolves around Dec 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official chart rankings published by the relevant music authority, determining the number of consecutive weeks 'SWAG' held the number one position. The platform will verify this information against publicly available data to determine the winning outcome. Traders will then be paid out based on the final result and their contract holdings in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. The release of competing songs from other artists is a major factor, as a strong new release could dethrone 'SWAG'. Changes in streaming numbers, radio airplay, and social media engagement for 'SWAG' will also be closely watched. Unexpected events, such as controversies surrounding the artist or the song, could also influence public opinion and, consequently, the market. Any major shifts in these indicators will likely cause traders to adjust their positions, leading to price fluctuations in this market.
