TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Science and Technology
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

Total volume:
$1,112,268
Volume 24h:
$7,532
722%
Liquidity:
$6,711
36%
Open interest:
$263,786
0%

Above 120

 - Kalshi

Above 120 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 6% 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 120

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$42,378
0.11%
1%
$17,836
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above 140

Trade
77%
Yes 77¢No 25¢
2¢
N/A
$95,514
0.04%
4%
$26,835
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

140-159

Trade
72%
2%
Yes 74.7¢No 29.9¢
4.6¢
$738
$50,418
0.05%
0.16%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above 145

Trade
21%
Yes 23¢No 79¢
2¢
N/A
$28,117
0.63%
10%
$18,697
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

120-139

Trade
7%
3%
Yes 9.9¢No 96.2¢
6.1¢
$964
$5,554
1%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

180-199

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 7.6¢No 97.1¢
4.7¢
$1,198
$61,768
0.04%
0.07%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above 170

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$90,972
0.63%
1%
$30,487
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above 150

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$54,254
0.05%
11%
$28,356
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above 160

Trade
4%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$187,752
0.01%
2%
$53,470
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

200 or more

Trade
4%
Yes 4.7¢No 97.6¢
2.3¢
$1,311
$107,381
0.02%
0.12%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above 200

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$34,476
0%
5%
$8,102
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.2%
Yes 3.4¢No 98.3¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 2.3¢
kalshi

Above 190

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$47,543
0%
5%
$16,355
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

160-179

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98.4¢
1.4¢
$2,500
$102,536
0.02%
0.02%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above 180

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$135,808
0.01%
2%
$43,543
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above 210

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$52,326
0%
0%
$20,106
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

100-119

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,657
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
polymarket

<100

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,815
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
Total markets: 17

Intro

This market tracks the total number of SpaceX launches occurring during the 2026 calendar year, as determined by the official SpaceX launch log. Currently, the consensus probability estimates a 97.0% chance of SpaceX having however many launches fall into the leading outcome bracket. This aggregate view combines data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on the launch count reported at https://www.spacex.com/launches. Keep an eye on the launch manifest updates expected throughout 2026, as changes to scheduled launches will directly impact this market, with final resolution occurring around January 1, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms employ different market structures – range-based (Polymarket) versus threshold-based (Kalshi) – leading to divergent resolution criteria.Hero tip: Consider the implications of the 'falls exactly between brackets' rule on Polymarket when evaluating probabilities. Kalshi markets are simpler to resolve (yes/no based on exceeding a threshold).

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket markets are structured around ranges of launch counts. Resolution is to the higher range if the actual launch count falls exactly on a bracket boundary. Resolution source: https://www.spacex.com/launches.
  • Kalshi: Kalshi markets are structured around exceeding specific launch counts. If SpaceX exceeds the threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'. Multiple markets exist with different thresholds. Resolution source is implicitly SpaceX launch data.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Kalshi

The market resolves Yes if SpaceX completes more than the specified number of launches in 2026, as verified by FAA data. Each outcome represents a different threshold for total launch count. If FAA source data is delayed, the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially incorporating information and perspectives not fully captured in traditional analyst forecasts. While analyst predictions for SpaceX's 2026 launch cadence vary, this market provides a real-time, financially-motivated estimate based on the collective judgment of traders. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions about factors like production capacity, launchpad availability, and potential delays. The current pricing on this market suggests a different probability distribution than many publicly available analyst reports, offering a valuable alternative data point for those following SpaceX.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading fees, and liquidity profiles, which can influence price discovery. Differences in market design, such as the types of contracts offered or margin requirements, can also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, varying levels of information access and interpretation among traders on each platform can lead to differing assessments of the likelihood of various launch outcomes. The spread between the two platforms is currently 26.6.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of successful SpaceX orbital launches in 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be based on publicly available data from sources that track space launches, such as official SpaceX announcements and independent space tracking organizations. The outcome will reflect the number of launches that reach a stable orbit, excluding any failures or anomalies that prevent mission success. Traders will be able to see the final result and settlement details on both Polymarket and Kalshi.

Several events could significantly impact the pricing of this market. Major announcements from SpaceX regarding their launch schedule, production capacity, or new rocket development could shift expectations. Unexpected delays or failures in upcoming launches would likely decrease the probability of higher launch counts, while successful and rapid launch cadence increases would have the opposite effect. Changes in government regulations or funding for space exploration could also play a role. Any news related to Starship's development and operational readiness will be closely watched, as its success is crucial for achieving a high launch count in 2026.