TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$91,248,924

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,520,955

334,440

Markets across

33,346

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,559

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
predict

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Mar 4, 2026, 11:30 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$12,765,169
Volume 24h:
$736,716
152%
Liquidity:
$1,288,738
24%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

0 (0 bps)

 - Predict

0 (0 bps) - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

85%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 85.6¢ buys you 117 shares | Odds: 85% Total Payout: $117 | Net Profit: $17 Multiplier: 1.17x | ROI: 17% | APY: 56% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

0 (0 bps)

Trade
85%
Yes 85.6¢No 14.8¢
0.4¢
$391,080
$783,512
0.43%
16%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

1 (25 bps)

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 10.5¢No 89.6¢
0.1¢
$121,040
$651,517
0.59%
3%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

2 (50 bps)

Trade
4%
Yes 3.5¢No 96.6¢
0.1¢
$233,747
$1,022,373
0.24%
1%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

3 (75 bps)

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.3¢
0.1¢
$228,272
$527,726
3%
6%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

5 (125 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢
—
$33,955
$2,825,527
0%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

4 (100 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢
—
$36,189
$2,593,290
0%
0.01%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

12+ (300+ bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$43,547
$1,258,580
95%
244%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

10 (250 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢
—
$44,612
$1,009,125
0%
19%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

9 (225 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$35,128
$520,308
23%
261%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

6 (150 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢
—
$5,301
$465,673
0%
66%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

8 (200 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$36,401
$398,977
0%
12%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

7 (175 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢
—
$35,262
$245,632
0%
116%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

11 (275 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$44,205
$462,928
0%
27%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
Total markets: 13

Description

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard on Predict tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the number of Federal Reserve rate cuts expected in 2026. It displays current implied probabilities for each outcome, 24-hour trading volume of $736,890, and cumulative group volume of $5,162,993. Users can monitor price movements, historical odds trends, and market depth to gauge how traders are positioning ahead of 2026 Fed decisions. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades execute, providing a live snapshot of market sentiment on monetary policy expectations.

Prediction market odds on Predict reflect real-money incentives and trader conviction, often diverging from traditional polling or economist surveys. While polls capture point-in-time sentiment, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking expectations and adjust dynamically as economic data, inflation reports, and Fed communications emerge. Markets tend to price in tail risks and longer-term uncertainty more aggressively than consensus forecasts. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are more hawkish or dovish than the median analyst view on 2026 rate-cut frequency.

On Predict, the market is priced as a set of discrete outcome contracts, each representing a specific number of rate cuts. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome, Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?, is currently trading at 85.4% implied probability, reflecting trader belief in that scenario. Prices update in real time as buy and sell orders flow in. Traders can back any outcome they believe likely, and payoffs are determined by the final count of Fed rate cuts announced during 2026. Liquidity and spreads vary by outcome popularity.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027, after the Federal Reserve's final policy decisions of 2026 are concluded. Resolution is determined by the official count of rate cuts announced by the Fed during the 2026 calendar year. Each 25-basis-point reduction counts as one cut. The outcome is objective and drawn from public Fed statements and meeting minutes, ensuring transparent and dispute-free settlement. Markets remain open for trading until the resolution date approaches.

Key catalysts include monthly inflation and employment data, which shape Fed rate-cut expectations. Unexpected CPI or jobs reports can shift odds significantly. Fed communications—speeches, meeting minutes, and forward guidance—also drive repricing. Economic recession signals, wage growth trends, and geopolitical shocks could accelerate or delay cuts. Changes in Treasury yields and market expectations for 2025 Fed policy set the stage for 2026 assumptions. Real-time market moves reflect traders updating their conviction as new information arrives, making the odds dynamic throughout the prediction window.