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How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
kalshi

How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

Aug 17, 2026, 11:00 PM EST - Jan 8, 2027, 1:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$108,017
Volume 24h:
$2,088
82%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$49,596
4%

Above 92,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 92,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 8, 2027

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,000 MW?

3%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 3¢ buys you 3,333 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $3,333 | Net Profit: $3,233 Multiplier: 33.33x | ROI: 3,233% APY not meaningful 133 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 92,000 MW

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$28,898
8%
420%
$9,941
4mo 1w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 91,500 MW

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$22,590
0.02%
3,127%
$10,694
4mo 1w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 94,000 MW

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$19,345
0%
826%
$6,625
4mo 1w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 98,000 MW

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$4,880
0%
64%
$2,980
4mo 1w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 92,500 MW

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$13,638
0%
0%
$9,117
4mo 1w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 93,000 MW

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$9,948
0%
0%
$6,199
4mo 1w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 96,000 MW

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$8,718
0%
106%
$4,041
4mo 1w 6d
active
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks the highest electricity usage on Texas's ERCOT power grid throughout 2026. It measures whether demand exceeds specific thresholds, reflecting how energy consumption patterns may shift due to factors like weather, economic growth, or energy efficiency measures.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official settled peak-demand value published by ERCOT for the calendar year 2026. For resolution, ERCOT’s integrated system load must be evaluated for a full hour—instantaneous load readings are excluded. Any preliminary peak-demand figures reported during the year may be revised, and the final settled value will determine the outcome. All markets share these unified rules, with each market resolving to 'Yes' only if the reported peak demand exceeds its specific threshold: 92,000 MW, 94,000 MW, 96,000 MW, or 98,000 MW.