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How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
kalshi

How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

Aug 17, 2026, 11:00 PM EST - Jan 8, 2027, 1:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$884,385
Volume 24h:
$7,330
447%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$137,535
2%

Above 91,500 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 91,500 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 8, 2027

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 91,500 MW?

5%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 6¢ buys you 1,667 shares | Odds: 5% Total Payout: $1,667 | Net Profit: $1,567 Multiplier: 16.67x | ROI: 1,567% APY not meaningful 72 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 91,500 MW

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$236,535
0.15%
15%
$26,896
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 92,500 MW

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$86,383
2%
9%
$8,620
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 92,000 MW

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$146,468
0.07%
3%
$49,311
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 94,000 MW

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$128,541
2%
47%
$10,354
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 96,000 MW

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$120,778
0%
167%
$9,855
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 93,000 MW

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$110,477
2%
31%
$28,671
2mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 98,000 MW

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$55,203
1%
38%
$3,829
2mo 1w 5d
active
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks the highest electricity usage on Texas's power grid over a full year. It measures whether demand exceeds specific thresholds based on official data. The outcome depends on verified peak load figures after any adjustments are finalized.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on ERCOT’s officially settled peak-demand value for the calendar year 2026. The resolution uses the integrated system load recorded for a full hour, disregarding instantaneous readings. Any preliminary figures reported during the year may be revised, and the final settled value published by ERCOT will determine all outcomes. If the settled peak demand exceeds the specified threshold for a given market (e.g., 92,000 MW, 94,000 MW, etc.), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Texas ERCOT peak demand market on Kalshi shows current odds, price trends, and 24-hour volume of $6,653. It provides a live view of trader sentiment and market activity for this event, allowing users to monitor how expectations for peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid in 2026 are evolving over time.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than many analyst forecasts. While analysts may emphasize historical trends or infrastructure projects, traders in this market incorporate real-time data, sentiment, and a broader set of variables. This divergence can highlight underappreciated risks or opportunities, making the market a valuable complement to traditional research and polls.

This market resolves around Jan 8, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The peak demand figure for the Texas ERCOT grid in 2026 will be drawn from official grid operator data and widely reported in energy news outlets, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.

Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including extreme weather forecasts, new infrastructure announcements, changes in energy policy, and shifts in renewable energy generation capacity. Economic growth projections, fuel price changes, and public announcements from grid operators may also influence trader sentiment and price movements as the 2026 peak demand date approaches.