TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How high will gas prices in Texas get this year?
kalshi

How high will gas prices in Texas get this year?

Mar 9, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 10:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$254,205
Volume 24h:
$1,190N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$153,956
0.02%

Above $4.20

 - Kalshi

Above $4.20 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

37%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 28¢ buys you 357 shares | Odds: 37% Total Payout: $357 | Net Profit: $257 Multiplier: 3.57x | ROI: 257% APY not meaningful 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $4.20

Trade
37%
2%
Yes 28¢No 74¢
2¢
N/A
$19,028
0.26%
0.74%
$4,351
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $4.80

Trade
11%
2%
Yes 14¢No 93¢
7¢
N/A
$13,888
2%
2%
$3,397
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $4.40

Trade
9%
Yes 16¢No 91¢
7¢
N/A
$23,010
2%
3%
$5,347
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $4.60

Trade
9%
Yes 10¢No 93¢
3¢
N/A
$18,783
1%
1%
$4,634
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $5.60

Trade
7%
Yes 5¢No 97¢
2¢
N/A
$5,910
0%
0%
$1,675
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $5.00

Trade
5%
3%
Yes 16¢No 94¢
10¢
N/A
$10,493
0.2%
1%
$2,633
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $5.20

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 10¢No 95¢
5¢
N/A
$10,406
2%
2%
$2,382
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $5.80

Trade
5%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$8,523
0%
0%
$3,177
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $6.00

Trade
4%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$7,198
0%
0%
$3,217
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $5.40

Trade
2%
4%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$5,366
3%
3%
$2,203
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $2.70

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$112,674
N/A
N/A
$112,475
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $4.00

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,316
N/A
N/A
$2,503
2mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above $3.80

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,112
N/A
N/A
$2,047
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $3.00

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,130
N/A
N/A
$1,957
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $2.50

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,196
N/A
N/A
$1,067
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $3.60

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,008
N/A
N/A
$295
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $2.80

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$494
N/A
N/A
$307
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $2.60

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$45
N/A
N/A
$42
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $3.40

View
96%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$108
N/A
N/A
$71
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $2.90

View
95%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$517
N/A
N/A
$174
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $3.20

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
Total markets: 21

Description

Average regular gasoline prices in Texas exceed a specified price threshold by December 31, 2026 according to AAA data.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by AAA's reported average regular gas prices for Texas. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the average price is strictly greater than the specified threshold by December 31, 2026. The thresholds range from $4.00 to $6.00 per gallon in $0.20 increments. AAA data serves as the exclusive source for price verification.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Texas gas prices market tracks the current prices for contracts predicting future average gas prices in Texas. You’ll find the implied probabilities of different price ranges, a price history chart showing how expectations have changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,190. Total volume for this market is $254,205, indicating the level of interest from forecasters. The dashboard provides a clear visualization of where traders believe gas prices are headed throughout the year.

Currently, prediction market participants are expressing views on Texas gas prices that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide point estimates or ranges, this market allows for a probabilistic assessment of various price levels. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards. Examining these differences can be valuable for understanding the collective wisdom of the crowd versus expert opinion on energy economics.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the prices for contracts representing different potential gas price outcomes. As more traders buy contracts predicting higher prices, the prices for those contracts increase, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the market’s aggregate expectation of the probability of each outcome. Traders are essentially betting on their predictions, and the resulting price movements provide a real-time assessment of future gas prices in Texas.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the average Texas gas price for the year is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from a recognized source tracking statewide average gasoline prices. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual average price achieved during the specified period. This allows for a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major geopolitical events impacting global oil supply, unexpected disruptions to Texas refineries, or shifts in demand due to economic conditions could all cause price fluctuations. Changes in state or federal energy policy, severe weather events affecting oil production or transportation, and even significant changes in driving habits could also move the market. Monitoring these events and their potential impact on Texas gas prices will be key to understanding movements in this market.