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How high will gas prices in California get this year?
kalshi

How high will gas prices in California get this year?

Mar 17, 2026, 11:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 10:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$489,834
Volume 24h:
$5,224
87%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$107,785
0.71%

Above $6.60

 - Kalshi

Above $6.60 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

31%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 31¢ buys you 323 shares | Odds: 31% Total Payout: $323 | Net Profit: $223 Multiplier: 3.23x | ROI: 223% APY not meaningful 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $6.60

Trade
31%
Yes 31¢No 73¢
4¢
N/A
$48,417
3%
4%
$7,409
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $6.80

Trade
27%
2%
Yes 30¢No 74¢
4¢
N/A
$83,149
1%
2%
$9,532
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $7.00

Trade
16%
Yes 18¢No 86¢
4¢
N/A
$112,084
1%
5%
$9,879
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $7.20

Trade
12%
1%
Yes 15¢No 88¢
3¢
N/A
$38,796
0.58%
3%
$6,953
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $7.40

Trade
10%
Yes 11¢No 94¢
5¢
N/A
$31,877
0.1%
0.5%
$8,168
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $7.80

Trade
9%
Yes 7¢No 98¢
5¢
N/A
$25,455
0%
1%
$9,084
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $7.60

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$41,378
0.02%
0.73%
$11,602
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $8.00

Trade
7%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$18,315
0%
2%
$9,031
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $6.40

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$24,979
N/A
N/A
$4,171
2mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above $6.20

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23,167
N/A
N/A
$4,728
2mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above $4.60

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20,452
N/A
N/A
$15,169
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $4.70

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,283
N/A
N/A
$1,885
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $4.80

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,309
N/A
N/A
$1,765
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $5.90

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$846
N/A
N/A
$734
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $5.10

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$507
N/A
N/A
$396
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $4.50

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$219
N/A
N/A
$155
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $5.80

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$175
N/A
N/A
$121
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $4.30

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$106
N/A
N/A
$106
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $5.70

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$97
N/A
N/A
$97
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $5.60

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$90
N/A
N/A
$90
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $4.40

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$2
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $6.00

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,766
N/A
N/A
$2,443
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $5.50

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,263
N/A
N/A
$1,075
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $5.00

View
95%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,030
N/A
N/A
$2,156
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above $4.90

View
95%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,749
N/A
N/A
$754
2mo 6d
No
Total markets: 25 of 28

Description

Average regular gasoline prices in California will exceed various price thresholds by the end of 2026.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by AAA's reported average regular gas prices for California. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the average price is strictly greater than the specified threshold by December 31, 2026. The thresholds range from $5.90 to $8.00 per gallon in $0.20 increments. AAA data serves as the exclusive source for price verification.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the California gas prices market tracks the current prices for contracts predicting future average gas prices in California. You’ll find the implied probabilities of different price levels, a history of price movements, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $4,056. The total volume traded on this market is $489,834, indicating significant interest in forecasting California’s fuel costs. This allows participants to see how the collective wisdom of the crowd is assessing the likelihood of various outcomes for gas prices throughout the year.

Currently, the odds in this market reflect a collective prediction about California gas prices that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets, this market aggregates the views of a diverse range of participants, creating a dynamic forecast that updates in real-time. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and those suggested by individual experts, as this market represents a broader, continuously refined assessment of potential outcomes. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the average California gas price will be determined based on data from a widely recognized source of fuel price information. The contracts will pay out based on whether the average price falls above or below predetermined levels, as defined within the individual markets available on Kalshi. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and receive payouts accordingly following verification of the data.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major geopolitical events affecting global oil supply, unexpected disruptions to California’s refinery capacity, or changes in state energy policies are all potential catalysts. Additionally, shifts in consumer demand, influenced by economic conditions or travel patterns, could also move the market. Even weather events, such as hurricanes impacting oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, could have ripple effects on California gas prices and, consequently, the prices within this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on changing conditions.