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$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on August 3?
polymarket
kalshi

Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on August 3?

Total volume:
$13,555
Volume 24h:
$145N/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
$9,684
0.23%

At least HK$26,500

 - Kalshi

At least HK$26,500 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 2, 2026

Time left: 05d:06h:41m

Will the Hang Seng Index be at least HK$26,500 in August 2026?

36%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 33¢ buys you 303 shares | Odds: 36% Total Payout: $303 | Net Profit: $203 Multiplier: 3.03x | ROI: 203% APY not meaningful 5 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least HK$26,500

Trade
36%
Yes 33¢No 98¢
31¢
N/A
$654
3%
3%
$422
5d 6h 41m
active
kalshi

At least HK$27,000

Trade
23%
Yes 23¢No 98¢
21¢
N/A
$309
6%
6%
$292
5d 6h 41m
active
kalshi

At least HK$27,500

Trade
6%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$1,010
2%
2%
$843
5d 6h 41m
active
kalshi

At least HK$30,000

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,534
0.5%
0.5%
$2,946
5d 6h 41m
active
kalshi

At least HK$29,000

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$3,109
0.56%
0.56%
$1,537
5d 6h 41m
active
kalshi

At least HK$29,500

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,458
1%
1%
$1,134
5d 6h 41m
active
kalshi

At least HK$28,000

Trade
2%
11%
Yes 9¢No 98¢
7¢
N/A
$967
2%
2%
$775
5d 6h 41m
active
kalshi

At least HK$28,500

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$523
3%
17%
$434
5d 6h 41m
active
kalshi

At least HK$26,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,301
N/A
N/A
$1,301
5d 6h 41m
Yes
polymarket

Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on August 3?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$686
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
Total markets: 10

Description

This event group determines the performance of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) around August 3, 2026. One market assesses whether the HSI will be up or down on August 3 compared to the prior trading day, while the other set of markets evaluates whether the HSI reaches various threshold levels at any point during August 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in market scope and resolution criteriaHero tip: These markets measure fundamentally different aspects of HSI performance — one is a binary direction comparison on a specific day, while the other is a range of threshold breaches over a month. Traders should carefully consider which market aligns with their view of HSI performance.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on comparison of HSI closing prices between August 3, 2026 and the most recent prior trading day. Will resolve to "Up" if August 3 closing price is higher, "Down" if lower, and 50-50 if equal or no trade.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to "Yes" if HSI reaches or exceeds any of the specified threshold levels (HK$26,000 to HK$30,000) at any time from August 2 to August 31, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Hang Seng Index closing price for Hang Seng (HSI) on Monday, August 3, 2026 is higher than the official Hang Seng Index closing price for HSI on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Hang Seng Index closing price for Hang Seng (HSI) on Monday, August 3, 2026 is lower than the official Hang Seng Index closing price for HSI on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If HSI does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Hang Seng Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the performance of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) during the period from August 2, 2026, to August 31, 2026. For each market, if the HSI reaches or exceeds the specified threshold level at any single point during this timeframe, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Data for the HSI is sourced from Trading View and used in its native currency and units without conversion. The index level only needs to touch the threshold once during the period; sustained levels are not required. Post-expiration revisions to the underlying data are disregarded. If no data is available for the entire evaluation period by the expiration date, all markets except those explicitly labeled "No data" or "None" resolve to No. All index levels are evaluated to two decimal places unless otherwise stated. Kalshi and its data sources are not affiliated with or endorsed by the index provider.