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24H VOL:
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OPEN INTEREST:
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339,027
Markets across
34,284
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Nov 1, 2026
- Kalshi
Nov 1, 2026 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 20, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Will MrBeast reach 600 million subscribers before November?
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Description
This event group tracks whether Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) will be postponed again after its November 19, 2026 release date. The markets resolve based on whether Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive officially announces a further delay or fails to release the game by the specified deadline.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms share identical resolution logic regarding the GTA VI release deadline, required announcement sources, and definition of 'official release'.Primary resolution logic: Official announcements from Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive, supported by credible reporting consensus if neededCore resolution logic:
- Resolve 'Yes' if GTA VI is not released in the US by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, either via official postponement announcement or failure to meet the deadline
- Resolve 'No' if the game becomes publicly available for purchase or download in the US by the deadline, including partial console releases
- 'Release' excludes early access, beta versions, pre-release availability, or leaks
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Partial Console Release: If released on any console (e.g., Xbox Series X/S) in the US by the deadline, it counts as a full release
- Leak vs Official Release: Leaks or unauthorized early access do not constitute an official release, even if playable
Polymarket
On November 6, 2025, Take-Two Interactive, the parent company of Rockstar Games, announced that the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) would be postponed from its previously scheduled release date of May 26, 2026, to a new release date of November 19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive, officially announces that Grand Theft Auto VI will not be released by November 19, 2026, or if Grand Theft Auto VI is otherwise not released in the US by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If MrBeast has at least 600 Million subscribers before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Predict
On November 6, 2025, Take-Two Interactive, the parent company of Rockstar Games, announced that the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) would be postponed from its previously scheduled release date of May 26, 2026, to a new release date of November 19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive, officially announces that Grand Theft Auto VI will not be released by November 19, 2026, or if Grand Theft Auto VI is otherwise not released in the US by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from thousands of traders and represent a crowdsourced forecast of postponement risk. Unlike traditional analyst reports, which rely on limited insider commentary or historical patterns, markets aggregate dispersed information and update continuously as new signals emerge. The current odds across Polymarket and Kalshi reflect trader conviction about development timelines, supply-chain factors, and Rockstar's track record. Markets often outperform single-analyst views because they penalize incorrect forecasters through financial loss, creating strong incentives for accuracy.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Polymarket and Kalshi typically stem from variations in user base composition, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Polymarket may attract different trader demographics or have tighter spreads in certain outcome pairs, while Kalshi might see heavier volume from institutional or regional participants. Arbitrage opportunities between the two platforms are often limited by withdrawal delays, platform fees, or regulatory restrictions on cross-platform trading. Monitoring both venues helps you identify where consensus is strongest and where isolated trading activity may create temporary mispricings.
This market resolves on Nov 20, 2026. Resolution hinges on whether Rockstar Games officially announces a postponement of GTA 6 beyond its current scheduled release date before that deadline. The outcome is determined by official statements from Rockstar, regulatory filings, or credible press releases confirming a delay. Markets typically resolve based on the earliest credible public announcement rather than speculation or rumor. Traders should monitor official Rockstar channels and major gaming news outlets for any delay announcements leading up to the resolution date.
Key catalysts include official Rockstar announcements regarding development status, quarterly earnings calls mentioning GTA 6 timelines, major technical issues or leaks affecting confidence, industry supply-chain disruptions, or competitive game launches that might prompt strategic delays. Regulatory scrutiny or controversy surrounding the game could also influence postponement likelihood. Marketing campaign intensity and pre-order data often signal internal confidence in launch readiness. Gaming industry news, developer hiring patterns, and statements from Take-Two Interactive leadership are all monitored by traders. Any hint of production challenges typically moves odds sharply toward postponement.