TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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GDP growth in 2026
polymarket
kalshi

What will GDP growth be in 2026?

Total volume:
$519,020
Volume 24h:
$299
205%
Liquidity:
$6,522
22%
Open interest:
$287,102
0.04%

2.1 to 2.5

 - Kalshi

2.1 to 2.5 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 28, 2027

GDP growth in 2026?

68%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 69.9¢ buys you 143 shares | Odds: 68% Total Payout: $143 | Net Profit: $43 Multiplier: 1.43x | ROI: 43% | APY: 187% 124 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

2.1 to 2.5

Trade
68%
Yes 69.9¢No 40.7¢
10.6¢
N/A
$39,350
0.11%
1%
$19,576
4mo 4d
active
polymarket

2.0–2.5%

Trade
56%
1%
Yes 62¢No 51¢
13¢
$537
$20,788
0.08%
0.41%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

>2.5%

Trade
39%
Yes 49.8¢No 71.9¢
21.7¢
$911
$25,380
0.11%
0.52%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

1.6 to 2.0

Trade
21%
Yes 20.7¢No 84¢
4.7¢
N/A
$41,214
0.12%
4%
$20,560
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

2.6 to 3.0

Trade
12%
2%
Yes 14.6¢No 91.9¢
6.5¢
N/A
$29,560
0.5%
2%
$14,472
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

3.1 to 3.5

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 99.9¢
4.9¢
N/A
$47,707
0%
9%
$31,598
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

1.1 to 1.5

Trade
3%
Yes 4.6¢No 96.9¢
1.5¢
N/A
$22,892
0%
0%
$13,347
4mo 4d
active
polymarket

1.5–2.0%

Trade
2%
Yes 2.7¢No 99¢
1.7¢
$890
$9,976
0.15%
3%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

0.0 or below

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 100¢
0.9¢
N/A
$48,938
0%
0%
$37,278
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

4.1 to 4.5

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 100¢
0.9¢
N/A
$43,924
0%
0%
$31,436
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

0.1 to 0.5

Trade
1%
Yes 2.6¢No 100¢
2.6¢
N/A
$29,734
0%
0%
$21,272
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

0.6 to 1.0

Trade
1%
Yes 0.5¢No 100¢
0.5¢
N/A
$26,055
0%
0%
$17,557
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

4.6 to 5.0

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 100¢
0.4¢
N/A
$33,300
0%
0%
$22,296
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

6.1 or above

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 100¢
0.4¢
N/A
$16,518
0%
0%
$16,383
4mo 4d
active
polymarket

<0.5%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.8¢
0.4¢
$1,296
$9,302
0%
2%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

0.5–1.0%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$1,821
$18,457
0%
0.16%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

1.0–1.5%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$1,067
$5,533
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

3.6 to 4.0

Trade
0%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$35,689
0%
0%
$26,684
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

5.1 to 5.5

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 100¢
0.4¢
N/A
$9,532
0%
0%
$9,482
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

5.6 to 6.0

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,171
0%
0%
$5,162
4mo 4d
active
Total markets: 20

Intro

This market tracks the United States’ real GDP growth in 2026, specifically whether it will fall between 2.0% and 2.5%. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Kalshi is 59.5%. The second most likely outcome is GDP growth in 2026 at 36.4%. This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “Advance Estimate” release for Q4 of 2026. Keep an eye on the BEA’s release of this data, estimated for January 2027, as this will determine the market’s outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms differ significantly in the granularity of their markets, creating a divergence in potential outcomes and requiring traders to consider a wider range of possibilities.Hero tip: Diversify your positions across platforms to account for the differing range definitions and potential for nuanced outcomes. Focus on the ranges that align with your overall economic forecast.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket markets are defined by wider ranges (0.5% increments) and a binary market for growth below 0.5%. Resolution uses the BEA 'Advance Estimate' and resolves to the higher range if the growth rate falls exactly on a boundary.
  • Kalshi: Kalshi offers a much more granular set of markets, with ranges of 0.5% width (0.1% - 0.5%, 0.6% - 1.0%, etc.) and a market for growth above 6.0%. Resolution relies on the BEA 'Advance Estimate'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for calendar year 2026 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate, expected with the Q4 2026 GDP release in early 2027. All stated growth rate ranges are inclusive of their boundaries. The resolution value spans from 0.0% or below through 6.1% or above, with intermediate bands covering 0.1–0.5%, 0.6–1.0%, 1.1–1.5%, 1.6–2.0%, 2.1–2.5%, 2.6–3.0%, 3.1–3.5%, 3.6–4.0%, 4.1–4.5%, 4.6–5.0%, 5.1–5.5%, and 5.6–6.0%. Revisions to GDP data published after the initial advance estimate are not considered for resolution purposes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may be influenced by biases or institutional pressures, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of opinions and information. Currently, the implied probability distribution from this market may differ from consensus estimates published by major financial institutions. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming a view on 2026 GDP growth, as each provides unique insights into potential economic scenarios. The collective intelligence revealed through trading volume of $519,020 can be a valuable signal.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity, leading to variations in price discovery. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? at 55.5%, while Kalshi leans toward GDP growth in 2026? at 68.0%. Differences in trading fees, margin requirements, and the availability of specific market contracts can also contribute to price discrepancies. These variations are a natural part of a decentralized prediction market ecosystem.

This market resolves around Feb 28, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official GDP growth rate for 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) or a similar authoritative source. Traders can monitor the market leading up to this date, adjusting their positions based on economic indicators and forecasts. The total volume traded in this market currently stands at $519,020, reflecting the collective anticipation surrounding this economic data release.

Numerous economic signals and geopolitical events could significantly impact this market. Key indicators like inflation rates, employment figures, consumer spending, and manufacturing data will all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected policy changes from the Federal Reserve, major shifts in global trade, or unforeseen geopolitical crises could also trigger substantial price movements. Additionally, revisions to previous GDP estimates can impact expectations for future growth. Monitoring these factors and the 24-hour volume of $330 will be crucial for understanding the evolving predictions within this market.