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FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?
polymarket
kalshi

FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?

Total volume:
$815,753
Volume 24h:
$2,356
3%
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
$377,176
0.04%

Before Jan 1, 2027

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Jan 1, 2027?

42%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 44¢ buys you 227 shares | Odds: 42% Total Payout: $227 | Net Profit: $127 Multiplier: 2.27x | ROI: 127% High Projected APY: 959% 126 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade
42%
Yes 44¢No 61¢
5¢
N/A
$12,176
24%
50%
$5,953
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$60,583
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
71%
Yes 72¢No 30.5¢
Avg: 2.6¢Max: 5¢
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

Trade
13%
5%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
N/A
$42,854
0%
9%
$25,011
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$41,087
0%
4%
$30,598
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Jun 13, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$160,031
N/A
N/A
$64,083
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 12, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$127,447
N/A
N/A
$45,692
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 11, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$58,668
N/A
N/A
$41,708
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 14, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54,964
N/A
N/A
$26,052
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 15, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50,975
N/A
N/A
$27,015
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 19, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,920
N/A
N/A
$17,685
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$273
N/A
N/A
$244
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$63,747
N/A
N/A
$24,144
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,712
N/A
N/A
$19,791
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 15, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,481
N/A
N/A
$28,216
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 25, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,758
N/A
N/A
$15,962
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Jul 15, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,076
N/A
N/A
$5,021
4mo 6d
No
Total markets: 16

Intro

This market tracks whether Congress will pass and the President will sign legislation reauthorizing FISA Section 702 surveillance authority. Aggregating data from Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability stands at 79.0% that reauthorization legislation becomes law by the April 30, 2026 deadline. Resolution will be determined using Congress.gov's legislation tracker, the Library of Congress, and official U.S. government sources. Watch for legislative activity in early 2026, as the April 30, 2026 signing deadline represents the final window for qualifying reauthorization to resolve this market affirmatively.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Deadline divergence: Polymarket enforces April 30, 2026 cutoff; Kalshi permits reauthorization through June/July 2026. Same underlying event, different resolution windows create potential for conflicting outcomes.Hero tip: Reauthorization passed between May 1 and May 31, 2026 resolves No on Polymarket but may resolve Yes on Kalshi. Confirm Kalshi's exact issuance date and whether multiple June/July conditions are alternatives or cumulative. Monitor Congress.gov for legislative timeline and reconcile your position exposure across platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Strict deadline: legislation must be signed into law by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Accepts passage via both chambers + presidential signature, law without signature while Congress in session, or veto override. Pocket vetoes that expire = No. Primary source: Congress.gov legislation tracker and Library of Congress.
  • Kalshi: Extended window: reauthorization becomes Yes if law is enacted on or after June 1, 2026 (with additional Yes conditions listed for June 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, and July 1, 2026). Unclear whether these are alternative dates or cumulative conditions. No explicit mention of pocket veto treatment.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets resolve Yes if legislation reauthorizing FISA Section 702 authority becomes law between market issuance and the specified deadline. For legislation to become law, it must pass the full chamber of both the House and Senate (committee passage alone is insufficient), and must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills for these purposes. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone—once reauthorizing legislation becomes law, all markets resolve Yes regardless of their individual deadlines. These markets effectively track the same underlying event (FISA Section 702 reauthorization) across multiple deadline dates, with resolution dependent on whether that reauthorization occurs before each market's respective cutoff date.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi differ fundamentally from polls: they measure financial incentives and trader belief rather than public opinion snapshots. Polls ask what voters think Congress will do; prediction markets reward those who correctly forecast actual legislative outcomes. For fisa section 702 reauthorized before it expires, the wide spread between platforms suggests uncertainty about timing and political will. Market odds often move faster than polls in response to committee votes, leadership statements, or procedural developments, making them a real-time barometer of informed trader expectations rather than a direct substitute for survey data.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different contract designs and trader demographics. Polymarket's broader user base and longer trading windows may reflect more speculative positioning, while Kalshi's tighter deadline (June 12, 2026 versus the broader reauthorization window) creates a narrower resolution criterion. Liquidity concentration, fee structures, and whether traders view fisa section 702 reauthorized before it expires as imminent or uncertain all influence pricing. Additionally, Polymarket attracts retail and institutional traders globally, whereas Kalshi serves a more regulated US-focused audience, leading to distinct risk assessments and time-horizon preferences.

This market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether legislation reauthorizing FISA Section 702 surveillance authority becomes law before that deadline. The outcome depends on congressional action—passage through both chambers and presidential signature. Markets will track committee hearings, floor votes, and any last-minute negotiations or procedural delays that could affect timing. Early resolution is possible if Congress acts well before the deadline; conversely, markets may remain uncertain if reauthorization stalls or faces opposition.

Key catalysts include House and Senate Judiciary Committee votes on reauthorization bills, floor debate scheduling, and statements from leadership on fisa section 702 reauthorized before it expires priorities. Privacy advocates and civil liberties groups may mobilize opposition, while national security officials typically push for renewal. Presidential veto threats or support would shift odds sharply. Intelligence community warnings about lapsed authority, media coverage of surveillance controversies, and election-year political dynamics all influence trader positioning. Procedural delays, amendments that reshape the bill, or unexpected bipartisan coalitions could trigger rapid repricing across both platforms.