TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$101,900,907

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,178,729,067

335,697

Markets across

33,528

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,579

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
polymarket
predict

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Jun 17, 2026, 7:30 PM EST - Oct 28, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$728,066
Volume 24h:
$4,061
13,438%
Liquidity:
$245,362
1%
Open interest:
$54,761N/A

Pause–Pause–Pause

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 28, 2026

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

54%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 55¢ buys you 182 shares | Odds: 54% Total Payout: $182 | Net Profit: $82 Multiplier: 1.82x | ROI: 82% High Projected APY: 3,276% 62 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Pause–Pause–Pause

Trade
54%
2%
Yes 55¢No 48¢
3¢
$11,428
$240,014
0.2%
1%
N/A
2mo 2d
active
predict

Pause–Pause–Pause

Trade
50%
Yes 99.6¢No 99.7¢
99.3¢
$32,624
$5
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
52%
Yes 77.3¢No 73.9¢
Avg: 51.2¢Max: 99.3¢
polymarket

Other

Trade
44%
1%
Yes 44¢No 57¢
1¢
$16,291
$314,770
0.28%
1%
N/A
2mo 2d
active
predict

Other

Trade
44%
2%
Yes 51¢No 64¢
15¢
$31,652
$55
0%
3%
N/A
2mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
44%
Yes 47.5¢No 60.5¢
Avg: 8¢Max: 15¢
predict

Pause–Pause–Cut

Trade
5%
Yes 10¢No 99.9¢
9.9¢
$29,876
$29
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2d
active
polymarket

Pause–Pause–Cut

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 99.2¢
2.2¢
$31,982
$61,014
1%
4%
N/A
2mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
3.5%
Yes 6.5¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 6.1¢Max: 9.9¢
predict

Pause–Cut–Pause

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.3¢
0.7¢
$30,860
$115
0%
4%
N/A
2mo 2d
active
polymarket

Pause–Cut–Pause

Trade
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.6¢
1.1¢
$33,655
$41,467
4%
7%
N/A
2mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1.1¢
polymarket

Pause–Cut–Cut

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$26,994
$27,109
0.16%
0.18%
N/A
2mo 2d
active
predict

Pause–Cut–Cut

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Cut–Pause–Pause

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,184
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2d
No
polymarket

Cut–Pause–Cut

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,609
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2d
No
polymarket

Cut–Cut–Pause

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,145
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2d
No
polymarket

Cut–Cut–Cut

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,550
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2d
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This event group tracks the Federal Reserve's decisions on the target federal funds rate across three consecutive Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings from July to October. Each market resolves based on the specific sequence of rate changes (cut, pause, or hike) during these meetings.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution criteria based on FOMC meeting outcomes for the three specified datesPrimary resolution logic: FOMC statements and official Federal Reserve publications

Core resolution logic:

  • A cut occurs when the upper bound of the target federal funds rate decreases compared to the prior meeting
  • A pause occurs when the upper bound remains unchanged from the prior meeting
  • Any rate hike or combination not listed results in resolution to "Other"
  • Emergency rate cuts outside scheduled meetings are not considered

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Hike Scenario: Any rate hike (increase in upper bound) automatically resolves all markets to "Other"
  • Partial Match: Markets resolve strictly to the exact sequence listed - no partial matches or "closest" outcomes
Timing: Resolution occurs after the final FOMC meeting on October 27-28, based on official statements and rate publicationsOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Predict

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm