TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$115,807,555

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,188,566,556

336,771

Markets across

33,711

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,629

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Fed Decision in September?
polymarket
predict

Fed Decision in September?

May 13, 2026, 5:23 PM EST - Sep 15, 2026, 8:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$55,643,816
Volume 24h:
$1,376,490
23%
Liquidity:
$3,439,101
17%
Open interest:
$14,938,609N/A

No change

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 16, 2026

Time left: 19d:06h:21m

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

68%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 69¢ buys you 145 shares | Odds: 68% Total Payout: $145 | Net Profit: $45 Multiplier: 1.45x | ROI: 45% APY not meaningful 19 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

No change

Trade
68%
Yes 69¢No 32.2¢
1.2¢
$85,459
$228,472
7%
32%
N/A
2w 5d 6h
active
polymarket

No change

Trade
68%
3%
Yes 68¢No 33¢
1¢
$638,097
$11,805,872
3%
30%
N/A
2w 5d 6h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
68%
Yes 68.5¢No 32.6¢
Avg: 1.1¢Max: 1.2¢
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
31%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
$397,338
$10,739,209
4%
25%
N/A
2w 5d 6h
active
predict

25 bps increase

Trade
28%
3%
Yes 29.9¢No 72.9¢
2.8¢
$39,662
$195,293
1%
7%
N/A
2w 5d 6h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
29.5%
Yes 30.5¢No 71.4¢
Avg: 1.9¢Max: 2.8¢
predict

25 bps decrease

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.7¢No 98¢
0.7¢
$33,052
$105,867
8%
43%
N/A
2w 5d 6h
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 98.9¢
0.1¢
$669,662
$16,468,019
3%
49%
N/A
2w 5d 6h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.5%
Yes 2¢No 98.4¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 0.7¢
predict

50+ bps decrease

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.6¢
0.7¢
$32,743
$9,474
0%
1%
N/A
2w 5d 6h
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$358,852
$7,561,966
0.91%
30%
N/A
2w 5d 6h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 0.7¢
predict

50+ bps increase

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$34,337
$59,220
0.01%
0.2%
N/A
2w 5d 6h
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$1,149,899
$8,470,424
0.88%
35%
N/A
2w 5d 6h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.9¢
Total markets: 10

Description

This event group tracks whether the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates by specific amounts after its September 2026 meeting. The markets resolve based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution logic based on the FOMC meeting outcomes and rounding rules.Primary resolution logic: FOMC statement after the September 15-16, 2026 meeting and the Federal Reserve's official website

Core resolution logic:

  • The change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range is calculated versus the level prior to the September 2026 meeting
  • Any change not expressed in the options is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points
  • If no statement is released by the end of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to No Change

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Partial Changes: Changes of 12.5 bps or 37.5 bps will be rounded up to 25 bps
  • No Statement: If no statement is released by the end of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to No Change
Timing: As soon as the FOMC statement for the September meeting with relevant data is issued, or by the end of the next scheduled meeting if no statement is releasedOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Predict

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.