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340,805

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34,373

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Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on August 24?
kalshi
polymarket

Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on August 24?

Total volume:
$74,658
Volume 24h:
$13,947
80%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$46,467
25%

Above 1.143

 - Kalshi

Above 1.143 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 24, 2026

Closed: Aug 21, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1.143

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,501
N/A
N/A
$8,501
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.155

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,998
N/A
N/A
$2,424
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.149

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,547
N/A
N/A
$2,671
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.167

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,869
N/A
N/A
$893
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.159

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,848
N/A
N/A
$1,457
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.151

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,269
N/A
N/A
$3,066
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.139

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,001
N/A
N/A
$3,001
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.153

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,000
N/A
N/A
$2,033
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.157

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,634
N/A
N/A
$2,067
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.161

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,071
N/A
N/A
$730
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.141

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,001
N/A
N/A
$2,001
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.163

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,803
N/A
N/A
$468
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.165

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,581
N/A
N/A
$788
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.147

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,489
N/A
N/A
$1,389
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.145

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,384
N/A
N/A
$1,384
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.177

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,478
N/A
N/A
$5,963
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 1.175

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,169
N/A
N/A
$3,169
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 1.169

View
0%
56%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,149
N/A
N/A
$2,257
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 1.173

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,942
N/A
N/A
$1,478
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 1.171

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,908
N/A
N/A
$728
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on August 24?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group tracks whether the Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate will be higher or lower on August 24, 2026, compared to a reference point. The outcome depends on specific price thresholds and reference methodologies defined by each platform.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets use fundamentally different reference points and logic: Kalshi depends on an August 21 opening price crossing one of 20 fixed thresholds, while Polymarket compares August 24’s close to the prior reference day’s close.Hero tip: Avoid cross-platform hedging unless you can model both August 21 opening prices and August 24 closing prices. Focus on the platform whose logic aligns with your trading strategy.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to "Up" if the Pyth reference price for EUR/USD on August 24, 2026 is higher than the prior reference day; "Down" if lower; 50-50 if equal. Uses the 4:59 PM ET close value from Pyth.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if the EURUSD opening candlestick is above any of 20 incremental thresholds (1.139 to 1.177) at 5pm ET on August 21, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) on August 24, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 24, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 24, 2026, or if August 24, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.EUR%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the EURUSD exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 21, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a specific threshold (e.g., Above 1.139, Above 1.141, etc.), and if the rate at that time is above the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places unless otherwise specified. If Pyth does not publish data at the exact time, the most recently available value is used. Any revisions to the underlying data after the expiration time are disregarded when determining the resolution.