TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Will Amber Glenn finish 2nd Place on Dancing with the Stars Season 35?
$
Description
Continuing from Season 35, the competition narrows down to its penultimate stage where contestants fight for the runner-up position. The second-place finisher is determined through a combination of judges' scores and viewer votes, culminating in a dramatic finale that decides who falls just short of the championship.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if the specified contestant finishes in second place during Dancing with the Stars Season 35. Similar to the third-place market, each market is dedicated to a single contestant, and resolution occurs only if that specific contestant secures the second-place position. The rules maintain Kalshi's lack of official connection to the show, with all trademarks belonging to their respective owners. The final rankings are determined by the show's official processes, combining judges' assessments and audience participation.
Frequently asked questions
Generally, prediction market odds often diverge from initial analyst forecasts and public polls, as they reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders actively updating their beliefs based on new information. While pre-season predictions might favor certain contestants, this market can quickly adjust to account for performance during the show, injuries, or shifts in public opinion. It’s common to see the market odds become more accurate as the season progresses and more data becomes available, potentially offering a more nuanced view than early-season predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible contestant finishing in 2nd place. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each contestant securing the runner-up position. The market’s efficiency stems from the incentive for traders to accurately assess probabilities and profit from discrepancies.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, following the conclusion of the Dancing with the Stars season. The outcome will be determined by the official results announced by the show’s producers, and verified against credible public reporting. The contestant officially declared as finishing in second place will be the winning outcome for this market. It’s important to note that the official show results are the sole determinant, and any disputes or challenges to those results will not affect the market’s resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Contestant performance during weekly dances is a primary driver, with strong performances likely to increase their odds and weaker performances decreasing them. Injuries or unexpected absences could also cause substantial shifts in the market. Public opinion, as reflected in voting patterns, will play a crucial role, and any major media coverage or social media trends surrounding the contestants could influence trading activity. Finally, judge’s scores and commentary can also move the market, as they shape perceptions of each contestant’s potential.
