TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.6b

24H VOL:

$136,531,341

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,197,913,311

339,027

Markets across

34,284

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Crude Oil all time high by...?
kalshi
polymarket
predict

Will crude oil reach an all-time high by 2027-01-01?

Total volume:
$11,681,827
Volume 24h:
$42,998
65%
Liquidity:
$409,507
2%
Open interest:
$3,763,667
0.43%

$115.01 or above

 - Kalshi

$115.01 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?

27%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 26.7¢ buys you 375 shares | Odds: 27% Total Payout: $375 | Net Profit: $275 Multiplier: 3.75x | ROI: 275% High Projected APY: 4,348% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$115.01 or above

Trade
27%
Yes 26.7¢No 74.9¢
1.6¢
N/A
$1,445,355
0.29%
3%
$548,023
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

$120.01 or above

Trade
21%
1%
Yes 21¢No 79.7¢
0.7¢
N/A
$806,605
0.42%
2%
$319,740
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

$125.01 or above

Trade
18%
Yes 17.9¢No 82.2¢
0.1¢
N/A
$599,283
0%
0.65%
$254,037
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

$130.01 or above

Trade
16%
Yes 16.3¢No 85.6¢
1.9¢
N/A
$643,075
0.03%
2%
$278,430
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

$135.01 or above

Trade
14%
1%
Yes 14.2¢No 86.9¢
1.1¢
N/A
$457,071
0.13%
3%
$185,713
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
$136,592
$847,768
1%
10%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

December 31

Trade
12%
Yes 12.8¢No 88¢
0.8¢
$31,630
$16,819
0.01%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
12.5%
Yes 12.9¢No 88¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

$140.01 or above

Trade
12%
1%
Yes 11.8¢No 88.4¢
0.2¢
N/A
$689,719
0.13%
2%
$279,131
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

$160.01 or above

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 11.2¢No 91¢
2.2¢
N/A
$624,887
0.68%
2%
$232,208
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

$150.01 or above

Trade
11%
2%
Yes 10.9¢No 89.2¢
0.1¢
N/A
$878,096
0.1%
3%
$374,043
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

$180.01 or above

Trade
10%
1%
Yes 9.9¢No 90.5¢
0.4¢
N/A
$860,595
0.26%
1%
$299,632
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

$200.01 or above

Trade
9%
Yes 9.3¢No 93.2¢
2.5¢
N/A
$613,415
0.5%
3%
$291,991
4mo 6d
active
predict

September 30

Trade
3%
Yes 3.1¢No 97.8¢
0.9¢
$118,332
$42,184
0%
45%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
2%
Yes 2.4¢No 97.9¢
0.3¢
$122,954
$1,193,944
1%
12%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2.5%
Yes 2.8¢No 97.9¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 0.9¢
kalshi

$100.01 or above

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.2¢
0.1¢
N/A
$465,656
N/A
N/A
$255,343
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

$85.01 or above

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$53,121
N/A
N/A
$51,718
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

$90.01 or above

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$32,665
N/A
N/A
$31,638
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

$80.01 or above

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,312
N/A
N/A
$9,097
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

$95.01 or above

View
98%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$176,015
N/A
N/A
$102,179
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

$110.01 or above

View
85%
Yes 99.8¢No 3.8¢
3.6¢
N/A
$146,822
N/A
N/A
$71,344
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

$105.01 or above

View
81%
Yes 99.7¢No 3.9¢
3.6¢
N/A
$288,448
N/A
N/A
$179,399
4mo 6d
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$448,552
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$342,417
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 23

Description

This event group tracks whether crude oil will reach a new all-time high by specified future dates across multiple prediction markets. The markets differ in their thresholds and resolution criteria.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets resolve based on CME Group's published daily high prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures, with specific thresholds and deadlines defined per market.Primary resolution logic: CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution depends on the daily high price of the Active Month CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contract
  • Active Month is defined as the nearest contract month, changing two business days prior to spot month expiration
  • Markets have different thresholds ($147.27 for Predict/Polymarket, various price points for Kalshi) and deadlines (May 31, June 30, September 30, or December 31)

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Active Month Change: The Active Month contract changes two business days prior to spot month expiration, which could affect threshold attainment if the price moves between contracts
  • Threshold Specificity: Kalshi markets have multiple thresholds ($80 to $200), creating nested yes/no conditions where higher thresholds imply lower ones are also met
Timing: Markets resolve as soon as a qualifying high price is published, or after final data for the deadline date is published if the threshold was not metOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Kalshi

If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $100 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $105 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $110 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $115 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $120 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $125 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $130 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $135 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $140 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $150 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $160 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $180 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $200 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking whether crude oil will reach a new all-time high within specified timeframes. Combined group volume of $11,374,453 reflects active interest in crude oil all time high by predictions. The cross-platform view reveals consensus probability and recent 24-hour activity of $24,460, helping traders compare real-time odds across venues and identify where the market is pricing peak oil scenarios most aggressively.

Prediction market odds synthesize real-money bets from thousands of traders and reflect forward-looking sentiment about crude oil reaching new highs. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on fundamental models and supply-demand analysis, markets embed geopolitical risk, production shocks, and macroeconomic uncertainty into live prices. Traders often incorporate breaking news faster than published research, making prediction markets a complementary signal to consensus forecasts when evaluating crude oil upside potential.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks that shape how crude oil all time high by outcomes are priced. Polymarket and Kalshi may weight near-term versus longer-dated resolution windows differently, and variations in order-book depth can amplify small supply-demand imbalances. Arbitrage opportunities between venues reward traders who monitor both platforms simultaneously.

This market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. The outcome hinges on whether the maximum WTI front-month settlement price or spot crude oil reaches specified thresholds by that date. Resolution is determined by official exchange data and historical price records, ensuring an objective, verifiable result independent of trader opinion.

OPEC production cuts or supply disruptions in major oil-producing regions can rapidly shift crude oil all time high by probabilities upward. Geopolitical tensions, sanctions, or pipeline outages inject volatility into prices. Conversely, recession fears, demand destruction, or unexpected production increases push odds lower. Energy policy shifts, dollar strength, and global growth data also influence trader positioning. Traders monitor weekly inventory reports, refinery utilization, and forward guidance from central banks as key catalysts.