TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Crude Oil all time high by...?
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?
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$20
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$100
$500
Description
This event group tracks whether crude oil will reach a new all-time high by various dates through 2026. Markets are split across Kalshi (which offers 17 separate binary contracts at different price thresholds) and Polymarket (which offers 4 time-bound contracts with a fixed $147.27 ATH threshold). The core question is identical: will WTI/CL crude oil exceed its previous all-time high?
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two platforms use different data sources (ICE vs CME), different price types (settle vs daily high), and different ATH reference points. Kalshi offers threshold-based contracts without explicit all-time high definition; Polymarket uses a fixed $147.27 threshold framed as the ATH.Hero Tip:
Verify which exchange and price type your counterparties expect. If ICE and CME prices diverge materially, or if the true historical all-time high differs from $147.27, arbitrage or basis risk may emerge. Request clarification on whether $147.27 is the consensus ATH or a Polymarket-specific assumption.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
17 binary contracts, each with a specific price threshold ($80–$200). Resolution: Yes if ICE reports maximum WTI front-month settle price above threshold between issuance and Dec 31, 2026. No explicit all-time high definition; thresholds are arbitrary levels. Key quote: 'If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above [threshold]...'Polymarket:
4 time-bound contracts (June 30, May 31, Sept 30, Dec 31). Resolution: Yes if CME CL futures daily high exceeds $147.27 on any trading day by specified date. Explicitly frames $147.27 as all-time high reference. Key quote: 'the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27'
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Kalshi
If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $100 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $105 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $110 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $115 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $120 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $125 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $130 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $135 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $140 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $150 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $160 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $180 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $200 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds synthesize real-money bets from thousands of traders and reflect forward-looking sentiment about crude oil reaching new highs. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on fundamental models and supply-demand analysis, markets embed geopolitical risk, production shocks, and macroeconomic uncertainty into live prices. Traders often incorporate breaking news faster than published research, making prediction markets a complementary signal to consensus forecasts when evaluating crude oil upside potential.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks that shape how crude oil all time high by outcomes are priced. Kalshi and Polymarket may weight near-term versus longer-dated resolution windows differently, and variations in order-book depth can amplify small supply-demand imbalances. Arbitrage opportunities between venues reward traders who monitor both platforms simultaneously.
This market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. The outcome hinges on whether the maximum WTI front-month settlement price or spot crude oil reaches specified thresholds by that date. Resolution is determined by official exchange data and historical price records, ensuring an objective, verifiable result independent of trader opinion.
OPEC production cuts or supply disruptions in major oil-producing regions can rapidly shift crude oil all time high by probabilities upward. Geopolitical tensions, sanctions, or pipeline outages inject volatility into prices. Conversely, recession fears, demand destruction, or unexpected production increases push odds lower. Energy policy shifts, dollar strength, and global growth data also influence trader positioning. Traders monitor weekly inventory reports, refinery utilization, and forward guidance from central banks as key catalysts.
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