TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Closest Governor's Race?
opinion
polymarket

Closest Governor's Race?

Total volume:
$3,056,259
Volume 24h:
$53
93%
Liquidity:
$130,455
3%
Open interest:
$2,910N/A

Democratic Party

 - Opinion

Democratic Party - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Democratic Party

76%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 82.7¢ buys you 121 shares | Odds: 76% Total Payout: $121 | Net Profit: $21 Multiplier: 1.21x | ROI: 21% | APY: 173% 67 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Democratic Party

Trade
76%
Yes 82.7¢No 73.7¢
56.4¢
N/A
$1,755,509
0%
0.05%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Ohio

Trade
13%
Yes 14.2¢No 87.8¢
2¢
$9,435
$768
3%
54%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Texas

Trade
13%
2%
Yes 15.2¢No 89¢
4.2¢
$9,381
$1,689
0%
3%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Wisconsin

Trade
12%
Yes 12.5¢No 88.9¢
1.4¢
$10,318
$1,167
0%
20%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Iowa

Trade
12%
Yes 12.2¢No 88.7¢
0.9¢
$9,539
$1,485
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Georgia

Trade
12%
Yes 12.3¢No 89¢
1.3¢
$9,192
$424
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Minnesota

Trade
11%
2%
Yes 10.8¢No 99.4¢
10.2¢
$674
$249
0%
14%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Nevada

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 12¢No 91¢
3¢
$936
$2,878
0%
32%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Florida

Trade
10%
9%
Yes 14.4¢No 94.8¢
9.2¢
$517
$234
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Kansas

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 7.4¢No 94.3¢
1.7¢
$10,193
$2,325
0%
10%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Alaska

Trade
5%
Yes 5.4¢No 94.7¢
0.1¢
$8,576
$236
0%
11%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Colorado

Trade
5%
Yes 6.5¢No 96.9¢
3.4¢
$8,703
$248
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

New Hampshire

Trade
5%
Yes 5.2¢No 96¢
1.2¢
$8,836
$534
4%
80%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

New Mexico

Trade
4%
2%
Yes 4.4¢No 97.4¢
1.8¢
$8,825
$235
6%
18%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Vermont

Trade
3%
3%
Yes 5.9¢No 99.6¢
5.5¢
$452
$181
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Arizona

Trade
2%
Yes 3.7¢No 99.1¢
2.8¢
$8,720
$274
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Michigan

Trade
1%
Yes 1.9¢No 99¢
0.9¢
$8,722
$334
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Maine

Trade
1%
Yes 2.1¢No 99.8¢
1.9¢
$8,725
$360
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

Oregon

Trade
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.3¢
0.9¢
$8,713
$331
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
opinion

Republican Party

Trade
1%
Yes 73.5¢No 73.5¢
47¢
N/A
$1,286,799
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
Total markets: 20

Intro

This market tracks which U.S. state will experience the closest gubernatorial race during the 2026 midterm elections, measured by the smallest margin of victory between the top two candidates. Aggregated across Opinion and Polymarket, the consensus probability for Florida having the closest Governor's race stands at 46.1%, with New Mexico at 44.2%. Resolution will be determined by certified results from all relevant state election authorities, with credible reporting consensus as fallback. Watch the November 3, 2026 election results as they are certified by state officials to determine which race ultimately had the tightest margin.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms apply identical margin-of-victory calculation methodology and rely on the same authoritative sources (state election authorities), with no conflicting definitions or timing requirements.Primary resolution logic: Certified results from all relevant state election authorities conducting gubernatorial elections in November 2026, with credible reporting consensus as fallback.

Core resolution logic:

  • Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage-point difference between valid votes received by first- and second-place candidates, derived by dividing each candidate's valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast.
  • The winning state is the one with the smallest margin of victory across all 2026 gubernatorial elections scheduled by October 31, 2026.
  • For multi-round elections (runoffs, ranked-choice), the relevant margin is from the round in which the winner is determined.
  • If two or more states have identical margins of victory, the state whose name comes first alphabetically is designated as the closest race.
  • All gubernatorial elections held in November 2026, including special elections and post-November runoffs, are included in the comparison.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tied Margins: If two states have identical margins of victory, the state whose last name comes first alphabetically resolves as the closest race.
  • Multi-Round Elections: For runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, only the margin from the round determining the winner is used for comparison.
  • Post-November Runoffs: Runoff elections held after November 2026 are included in resolution if they determine a winner for a race scheduled by October 31, 2026.
  • Data Source Hierarchy: Primary source is state election authority certification; credible reporting consensus may be used if official certification is delayed or unavailable.
Timing: Resolution occurs after all 2026 gubernatorial election results are certified by relevant state authorities, including any runoff elections held through the certification deadline. The event resolves to a single state with the smallest margin of victory.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Frequently asked questions

The closest governor's race market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Opinion to identify which 2026 gubernatorial contest will have the narrowest margin of victory. Traders on both platforms assess state-by-state competitive dynamics, polling trends, and campaign momentum to price the likelihood of each race outcome. This market reflects real-time consensus on which governor's race will be decided by the smallest vote differential, with aggregate volume of $3,054,292 demonstrating significant interest in forecasting electoral competitiveness across major states.

Prediction markets incorporate polling data alongside other signals—fundraising, turnout models, demographic shifts, and historical voting patterns—to generate forward-looking odds. While traditional polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, this market prices in trader expectations about how races will tighten or widen between now and Election Day. Markets often diverge from polls when traders believe momentum or structural factors will shift outcomes, making them a complementary lens for understanding competitive intensity in gubernatorial races.

Polymarket and Opinion may price this market differently due to variations in trader composition, liquidity depth, and how each platform's mechanics reward information discovery. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in user geography, risk appetite, and the timing of large trades can also create temporary spreads. Both platforms ultimately reflect the same underlying event—which governor's race will be closest—but the path to consensus pricing may vary, creating arbitrage opportunities for traders monitoring both venues.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, following the 2026 general election. The outcome will be determined by identifying which gubernatorial race produced the smallest margin between the top two candidates, verified against credible public reporting of official results. Once election results are finalized and certified across all states, the market will settle based on which governor's race met the closest-race criteria, concluding trader positions and distributing winnings accordingly.

Major catalysts include primary election outcomes that reshape general-election matchups, unexpected candidate withdrawals or endorsements, economic data affecting voter sentiment, and polling shifts in key races. Campaign spending surges, debate performances, and demographic turnout models will influence trader assessments of which races remain competitive. Late-breaking scandals, shifts in national political momentum, and state-specific issues—education, economy, abortion—can rapidly alter which governor's race appears most vulnerable to a narrow outcome, driving significant repricing across both platforms.