TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$101,900,907

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,178,729,067

335,697

Markets across

33,528

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,579

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Brazil Presidential Election
polymarket
predict

Brazil Presidential Election

Total volume:
$141,595,804
Volume 24h:
$1,201,217
111%
Liquidity:
$15,731,759
11%
Open interest:
$5,535,450N/A

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 26, 2026

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

62%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 62¢ buys you 161 shares | Odds: 62% Total Payout: $161 | Net Profit: $61 Multiplier: 1.61x | ROI: 61% High Projected APY: 9,766% 37 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Trade
62%
Yes 62¢No 39¢
1¢
$332,080
$9,136,714
1%
5%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
predict

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Trade
61%
Yes 61.3¢No 38.8¢
0.1¢
$298,480
$106,117
5%
15%
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
61.5%
Yes 61.7¢No 38.9¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 1¢
predict

Flávio Bolsonaro

Trade
36%
Yes 35.7¢No 64.4¢
0.1¢
$182,039
$162,937
8%
16%
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
active
polymarket

Flávio Bolsonaro

Trade
35%
Yes 35.2¢No 64.9¢
0.1¢
$385,225
$9,035,311
1%
4%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
35.5%
Yes 35.4¢No 64.7¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

Eduardo Bolsonaro

Trade
7%
Yes 14¢No 99.9¢
13.9¢
$34,325
$111,251
0%
59%
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
active
polymarket

Eduardo Bolsonaro

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,663,670
$10,444,238
0%
0.02%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
3.5%
Yes 7.1¢No 100¢
Avg: 13.9¢Max: 13.9¢
predict

Renan Santos

Trade
3%
Yes 2.9¢No 97.2¢
0.1¢
$48,895
$97,959
0%
4%
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
active
polymarket

Renan Santos

Trade
2%
Yes 2.4¢No 97.7¢
0.1¢
$436,504
$11,372,115
1%
11%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2.5%
Yes 2.7¢No 97.4¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

Camilo Santana

Trade
3%
Yes 4.9¢No 99.9¢
4.8¢
$35,145
$37
0%
1%
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
active
polymarket

Camilo Santana

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$474,637
$5,155,526
0%
2%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.5%
Yes 2.5¢No 100¢
Avg: 4.8¢Max: 4.8¢
polymarket

Person N

Trade
2%
Yes 1.7¢No 98.4¢
0.1¢
$282,743
$1,449,258
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
predict

Fernando Haddad

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢
—
$38,107
$396,650
0%
22%
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
active
polymarket

Fernando Haddad

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$333,783
$7,295,674
0%
0.4%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Jair Bolsonaro

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$286,880
$294,702
0%
0.11%
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
active
polymarket

Jair Bolsonaro

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$493,725
$6,228,525
2%
5%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

Ronaldo Caiado

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$34,935
$1,147,412
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
active
polymarket

Ronaldo Caiado

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$796,226
$6,702,680
2%
5%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.9¢
predict

Tarcisio de Freitas

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢
—
$37,206
$871,465
12%
361%
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
active
polymarket

Tarcisio de Freitas

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$562,890
$14,057,211
0.18%
0.94%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Romeu Zema

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢
—
$34,714
$265,889
0%
41%
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
active
polymarket

Romeu Zema

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$594,706
$6,041,835
0.85%
5%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

Michelle Bolsonaro

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$37,274
$2,303,437
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
active
polymarket

Michelle Bolsonaro

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$471,412
$10,333,899
0.96%
3%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

Ratinho Júnior

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$34,524
$63,474
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
active
polymarket

Ratinho Júnior

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,836,017
$10,429,490
0%
0.02%
N/A
1mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This group of markets tracks the outcome of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, covering multiple candidate-specific questions across two platforms. All markets resolve based on the official election results as reported by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution criteria: official TSE results, second-round inclusion, and June 30, 2027 deadline for unknown outcomes.Primary resolution logic: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE)

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to "Yes" if the listed candidate is officially declared the election winner by the TSE
  • Market resolves to "No" if any other candidate wins
  • If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, all markets resolve to "Other" (Polymarket) or equivalent outcome (Predict)

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Second Round: Markets include potential second-round results — winner determined after both rounds if necessary
  • Ambiguous Reporting: In case of conflicting reports, resolution defaults to official TSE results
Timing: Resolution occurs when official results are declared by the TSE, with final deadline of June 30, 2027Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Predict

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).