TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Best AI in Oct 2026?
kalshi

Best AI in Oct 2026?

Sep 29, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$685,495
Volume 24h:
$22,171
56%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$379,461
1%

Gemini

 - Kalshi

Gemini - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 04d:03h:47m

Best AI in Oct 2026?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 88¢ buys you 114 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $114 | Net Profit: $14 Multiplier: 1.14x | ROI: 14% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Gemini

Trade
88%
Yes 88¢No 13¢
1¢
N/A
$160,182
2%
40%
$90,876
4d 3h 47m
active
kalshi

Claude

Trade
11%
3%
Yes 12¢No 90¢
2¢
N/A
$153,762
5%
50%
$59,661
4d 3h 47m
active
kalshi

Muse

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$161,581
0.2%
11%
$108,087
4d 3h 47m
active
kalshi

ChatGPT

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$155,297
7%
15%
$90,474
4d 3h 47m
active
kalshi

Qwen

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$29,795
2%
48%
$13,231
4d 3h 47m
active
kalshi

Kimi

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$13,584
0.69%
74%
$9,613
4d 3h 47m
active
kalshi

Grok

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$11,295
0%
21%
$7,520
4d 3h 47m
active
Total markets: 7

Description

This event determines which artificial intelligence firm develops the highest-ranked large language model by the end of October 2026. The competition involves major tech companies vying for leadership in AI innovation, with the outcome decided by independent benchmarking and user evaluation metrics.

Kalshi

The event declares a 'Yes' outcome if any listed company—Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Meta, Alibaba, or Moonshot—has the top-ranked large language model as measured on October 31, 2026. Ranking ties are resolved sequentially: first by the highest Arena Score, then by the greatest number of user votes, and finally by the earlier release date of the tied models. Each market corresponds to one company, and the resolution hinges solely on that company's model achieving the singular top position according to these unified tiebreaker rules.