TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$91,248,924

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,520,955

334,440

Markets across

33,346

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,559

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Bank of Mexico Decision in September?
polymarket
kalshi

Bank of Mexico Decision in September?

Total volume:
$44,979
Volume 24h:
$377
7,436%
Liquidity:
$13,772
2%
Open interest:
$109
75%

No change

 - Polymarket

No change - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 24, 2026

Time left: 28d:11h:02m

No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?

94%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 94¢ buys you 106 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $106 | Net Profit: $6 Multiplier: 1.06x | ROI: 6% | APY: 124% 28 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No change

Trade
94%
Yes 94¢No 7¢
1¢
$3,638
$24,924
0.62%
0.74%
N/A
4w 11h
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
6%
Yes 6.4¢No 94¢
0.4¢
$4,656
$10,352
0.43%
0.73%
N/A
4w 11h
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.8¢
0.7¢
$1,248
$2,652
2%
6%
N/A
4w 11h
active
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.8¢
0.4¢
$2,735
$4,248
1%
42%
N/A
4w 11h
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.9¢
0.4¢
$1,496
$2,693
2%
88%
N/A
4w 11h
active
kalshi

Above 17.129

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$56
N/A
N/A
$56
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.149

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$47
N/A
N/A
$47
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.131

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.117

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.133

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.135

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.137

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.139

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.141

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.143

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.145

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.147

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.151

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.153

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.155

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.157

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.159

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.161

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.163

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 17.165

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 25 of 35

Description

This event group tracks the Bank of Mexico's interest rate decision following its September 2026 meeting. The Polymarket questions focus on specific changes in basis points to the overnight interbank interest rate, while the Kalshi questions are based on the USDMXN exchange rate at a specific time on August 14, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: These markets resolve on completely different underlying events: Polymarket uses the Bank of Mexico's interest rate decision, while Kalshi uses the USDMXN exchange rate at a specific time.Hero tip: Treat these as separate bets as they resolve on different events. Do not assume correlation between the Bank of Mexico's interest rate decision and the USDMXN exchange rate.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the official change in the Bank of Mexico's overnight interbank interest rate after its September 2026 meeting, with specific thresholds for increases or decreases in basis points. Uses official Bank of Mexico statements from the September 24, 2026 meeting.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on whether the USDMXN opening candlestick is above specific thresholds at 5pm ET on August 14, 2026. Each question has a different threshold value.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDMXN exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 14, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold, and if the rate is above that threshold at the specified time, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at exactly 5pm ET, the most recent available value before that time will be used. Any revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time will not affect the resolution. This consistent framework ensures objective and transparent outcomes across all threshold-based markets.