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Bank of Japan Decision in September?
polymarket
predict

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

Jun 17, 2026, 7:32 PM EST - Sep 18, 2026, 11:59 AM EST
Total volume:
$356,296
Volume 24h:
$5,784
395%
Liquidity:
$203,407
11%
Open interest:
$73,682N/A

25 bps increase

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 18, 2026

Time left: 21d:18h:30m

Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 90.8¢ buys you 110 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $110 | Net Profit: $10 Multiplier: 1.10x | ROI: 10% | APY: 396% 21 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

25 bps increase

Trade
88%
1%
Yes 90.8¢No 14¢
4.8¢
$49,756
$1,495
0%
0.07%
N/A
3w 18h
active
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
88%
2%
Yes 88¢No 13¢
1¢
$15,400
$122,254
3%
8%
N/A
3w 18h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
88%
Yes 89.4¢No 13.5¢
Avg: 2.9¢Max: 4.8¢
polymarket

No change

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
$12,750
$121,203
0.75%
6%
N/A
3w 18h
active
predict

No change

Trade
12%
1%
Yes 14.1¢No 89.3¢
3.4¢
$354
$1,183
0%
3%
N/A
3w 18h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
12.5%
Yes 13.6¢No 88.7¢
Avg: 2.2¢Max: 3.4¢
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.1¢
0.2¢
$12,683
$69,256
2%
19%
N/A
3w 18h
active
predict

50+ bps increase

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,826
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 18h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.1¢
Avg: 0.2¢Max: 0.2¢
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$10,372
$20,770
0%
0.01%
N/A
3w 18h
active
predict

25 bps decrease

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,580
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 18h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$12,976
$20,134
0%
0.76%
N/A
3w 18h
active
predict

50+ bps decrease

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,708
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 18h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
Total markets: 10

Description

This event group tracks the potential changes to the Bank of Japan's uncollateralized overnight call rate following its September 2026 monetary policy meeting. Markets will resolve based on the official announcement from the Bank of Japan regarding any rate adjustments, with specific attention to whether changes are 25 basis points, 50+ basis points, or no change at all.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical resolution logic based on official Bank of Japan announcements with consistent rounding and meeting postponement rulesPrimary resolution logic: Official Bank of Japan statement or release from its September 2026 meeting

Core resolution logic:

  • Measure change in uncollateralized overnight call rate relative to level prior to meeting
  • Apply rounding rules: <25 bps → 25 bps, >25 bps → nearest 25 bps (rounded away from 0)
  • Resolve based on postponed meeting if occurs before next scheduled meeting; resolve as No Change if meeting cancelled or postponed past next meeting
  • Emergency rate changes outside the meeting do not count

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Rate Bound Change: If rate is defined by upper/lower bounds, use change to upper bound
  • Postponed Meeting: Resolve based on outcome of postponed meeting if before next scheduled meeting
  • Cancelled Meeting: Resolve as No Change if meeting cancelled or postponed past next meeting
Timing: As soon as official Bank of Japan statement/release with relevant data is issuedOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.