TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
polymarket

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Jun 1, 2026, 5:07 PM EST - Dec 31, 2027, 6:55 PM EST
Total volume:
$451,366
Volume 24h:
$5,979
80%
Liquidity:
$117,023
0.81%
Open interest:
$41,163N/A

$2.0–$2.25T

 - Polymarket

$2.0–$2.25T - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?

20%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 19.8¢ buys you 505 shares | Odds: 20% Total Payout: $505 | Net Profit: $405 Multiplier: 5.05x | ROI: 405% APY not meaningful 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$2.0–$2.25T

Trade
20%
Yes 19.8¢No 80.6¢
0.4¢
$13,074
$53,541
3%
34%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$1.75–$2.0T

Trade
19%
Yes 20¢No 83¢
3¢
$15,227
$42,038
2%
30%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$2.25–$2.5T

Trade
19%
1%
Yes 19¢No 82¢
1¢
$14,371
$38,517
1%
17%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$2.5–$2.75T

Trade
17%
1%
Yes 16.6¢No 83.5¢
0.1¢
$11,899
$37,291
0.53%
48%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$3.0T+

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 9.7¢No 90.9¢
0.6¢
$12,356
$32,384
2%
37%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$1.5–$1.75T

Trade
7%
Yes 8¢No 93.7¢
1.7¢
$12,953
$65,609
0.8%
31%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$2.75–$3.0T

Trade
7%
Yes 7.2¢No 94¢
1.2¢
$5,422
$21,617
0%
37%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

<$1.25T

Trade
3%
Yes 3.1¢No 97.3¢
0.4¢
$7,416
$69,202
0.48%
28%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

No IPO by December 31, 2027

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3.6¢No 98.9¢
2.5¢
$12,743
$30,715
2%
27%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$1.25–$1.5T

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.3¢No 98.6¢
0.9¢
$11,562
$60,453
0.48%
16%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
Total markets: 10

Description

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and pricing for where Anthropic's market capitalization will close on its IPO day across multiple strike levels. You can monitor live probability estimates, 24-hour trading volume of $5,979, and historical price movements for each higher strike outcome. The interface displays which strike price commands the highest trader conviction, helping you compare relative likelihood across the full range of potential closing valuations for Anthropic's public debut.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional analyst price targets because traders incorporate real-time sentiment, recent funding rounds, and competitive dynamics that formal research may lag. While equity analysts typically issue valuations based on comparable company multiples and discounted cash flow models, prediction markets reflect live consensus from participants with direct financial exposure. Comparing Polymarket probabilities to published analyst reports reveals whether the market is pricing in more optimism or caution than the research consensus on Anthropic's IPO valuation.

On Polymarket, each higher strike for Anthropic's IPO closing market cap is priced as a separate binary contract, where traders buy or sell YES shares reflecting their belief the final valuation will exceed that threshold. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices range from near-zero for extremely high strikes to near-certainty for lower ones, with the spread between bid and ask reflecting uncertainty and liquidity at each level. Real-time order books show depth and allow limit or market orders, letting traders express precise views on which valuation band Anthropic will occupy at IPO close.

The market resolves on Dec 31, 2027, marking the end of Anthropic's first trading day as a public company. Resolution hinges on the official closing market capitalization reported by financial data providers at the end of that trading session. Each strike outcome settles based on whether the final market cap exceeds its specified threshold, with winners receiving payouts proportional to their YES holdings and losers receiving nothing.

Major catalysts include Anthropic's S-1 filing details, revenue and profitability metrics, competitive announcements from OpenAI or Google, AI regulation developments, and macroeconomic shifts affecting tech valuations. Pre-IPO funding rounds or partnership announcements will influence trader expectations of opening valuation. Market-wide tech sentiment, broader equity volatility, and comparable company IPO performance also drive repricing. As the IPO date approaches, lockup terms, insider selling plans, and analyst initiations will refine market cap forecasts across all strike levels.