TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$84,940,147
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,163,022,755
334,261
Markets across
33,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,574
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
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$4.00-$4.50T
- Polymarket
$4.00-$4.50T - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Aug 31, 2026
Related News
Time left: 04d:09h:33m
Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of August 2026?
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Description
This event group concerns the market capitalization of Alphabet (Google's parent company) at the end of August 2026. The group includes multiple markets across different platforms with varying resolution criteria, including thresholds based on U.S. Treasury yields and specific market cap brackets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Fundamentally different resolution criteria across platforms (company-specific market cap vs macro Treasury yield thresholds)Hero tip: These markets represent separate bets - Polymarket tracks Alphabet's business performance while Kalshi tracks macro interest rate environment. Do not assume correlation; treat as distinct exposuresCritical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on Alphabet’s actual market capitalization at close of regular trading on last trading day of August 2026, sorted into $0.5T brackets from <$3.50T to >=$6.00T
- Kalshi: Resolves based on 30Y U.S. Treasury par yield levels on Aug 31, 2026 with 15 sequential thresholds from >=5.10% to >=5.38%
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to Alphabet's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether the par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury exceeds a specific threshold—ranging from 5.10% to 5.38%—on August 31, 2026. Each market has a unique, incrementally higher threshold, meaning only the markets with thresholds at or below the actual yield will resolve to 'Yes.' Expiration occurs at the sooner of 7:00 PM ET following the official data release for that date or one week after August 31, 2026, ensuring timely resolution regardless of when the data becomes publicly available.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Google (GOOGL) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Google (GOOGL) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Google (GOOGL), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Google (GOOGL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Google (GOOGL) trades governs.
